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NBA Sports Betting Picks - 12/29 (I know this is a DFS forum but wanted to drop this in here incase anyone else is also betting!)

NBA Plays
Atlanta (-4.5) over Cleveland (2 units)
Atlanta is only 5-10 at home but they are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Cleveland is a horrible 3-15 on the road and 2-8 in their last 10 games. Our algo has this game with Atlanta winning 112-103 and 109-102.
Offensive Efficiency: (Points scored per 100 possessions)
Atlanta is at 1.00 on the year (5.3% below league average) but they are 1.05 over their last 3 games for a 4.1% increase.
Cleveland is at 1.03 on the year but they have dropped down to 0.95 over their last 3 games.
Defensive Efficiency: (Points allowed per 100 possessions)
Atlanta is at 1.09 on the year and have improved to 1.05 over their last 3 games.
Cleveland is at 1.12 on the year and out to 1.13 over their last 3 games.
Points Per Game:
For the season Atlanta is at 109 and Cleveland 102, fairly close.
Over the last 3 games there is a wider margin with Cleveland dropping down to 91 points per game and Atlanta jumping out to 114 points per game.
Scoring Margins:
Cleveland has been outscored by 17.3 points over their last 3 games and 9.2 points per game over the entire season.
RECAP: If you are looking at recent stats then Atlanta has an offensive advantage of 1.05 (meaning they are scoring 105 points per 100 possessions) vs. Cleveland only at 0.95 (meaning they are only scoring 95 points per 100 possessions). On the defensive side Atlanta is at 1.05 vs. Cleveland who is out to 1.13. That is roughly at 10 points offensive advantage and an 8 points defensive advantage for Atlanta. We didn’t even tough on the Hawks scoring 4 more points per game at home and Cleveland scoring 5 points less on the road. Hawks are also averaging 109 possessions per game and Cleveland only 95.7.
Honorable Mention:
LA Clippers (-3.5) over Spurs (1 unit)
LAC is a nice 12-5 at home and the Spurs are only 5-12 on the road. We have been riding the Spurs a lot so this does erk me to have a play on the Clips! LAC offensive efficiency numbers have risen from 1.09 on the year to just shy of 1.14 over the last 3 games. Spurs at are 1.09 on the year and have dropped to 1.05 over their last 3 games. Spurs on the road drop down to 1.07 while is almost 4 points lower than their 1.11 number at home. On the year the team defensive efficiency is close but the separation is the home vs. away. Clippers are at 1.06 at home and the Spurs are at 1.12 on the road. Basically everything is pointing to this being a 3-5 point game for the Clippers. But the Spurs played last night (on the road) and now they are playing another back-to-back road game. DeRozan & Aldridge both played 38 minutes last night so I don’t think they will play another 38 and it is possibly that right before lock one of them gets the night off for rest. Clippers were also embarrassed when they played the Spurs on 12/13 where they were beat 125-87 and now this is a revenger for them facing a tired Spurs team on their home court!
submitted by CheatSheetProscom to FantasyNBAPlays [link] [comments]

Three's, Defensive strategy and Officiating. Has it made the NBA Boring?

I want to start this off with saying that I know many will probably disagree but Its a basketball forum and I figured this would be the best place to share. I welcome some healthy disagreement or (hopefully) some shared agreement.
After what feels like 4 years of being somewhat blinded by the predictability of the Warriors dominance over the league, I feel like I just woke up out of a 4 year coma to see that the NBA has become , in short, boarder-line unwatchable.
Just a couple observations that stand out when watching these playoffs:- 3 pointers have ruined the game. They are too valuable compared to their difficulty and because of this every team plays essentially the exact same way. Bigs can shoot, bench players can shoot, star players have no trouble launching from even farther back. It's boring to me and I wish it would change.
- Way too many touch fouls for guards. Once a guard is past his man, any contact whatsoever is rewarded with free throws. You used to be able to see how well a player was doing more or less from his FG numbers, but now it seems like you look at a box score in the 3rd quarter and its like 'oh he went 1-7 in the first half, yikes bet he didn't score that many points... oh my god he has 24 points!' because the player went to the line 26 times. The way the game is called basically makes defenders surrender the play as soon as a guard gets one step on them. Also coupling that with three pointers being basically the only thing that matters, there doesn't seem to be much in the way of help defense because help defenders are much more concerned with giving up a corner three than a layup. Check out this play to see some of the excellent defense I'm talking about. Not to mention the lame touch foul.
- In the NBA right now it seems like there are two positions: Best Player and Three Point Shooters. Your best player basically does a Harden impression and either shoots a three after a series of endless picks or drives the lane for a layup or free throw. All this while everyone else stand around the arc. Because everyone can shoot threes now and because they are so overvalued, the other players on the court only role is to set a pick for the Best Player or literally stand around on the three point arc waiting to jack up a shot. It's boring and static and it makes every team play more or less exactly the same.
- Look at this play. The player gets a rebound 5 feet from the basket down 2 points in a crucial possession in overtime. What does he do? Does he try to score being so close to the basket to tie the game? No. He look's immediately to a player who has to launch into a step-back three. Threes are the only plays that matter.
- Every game seems to have insane scorelines where scoring 250+ points combined is not uncommon. This makes a lot of these 50 point games feel ordinary and I would argue less impressive considering the style of play in todays NBA than even a 30 point game in the 2000-2010's.
- I know people are going to complain and say I'm just a hater or don't understand that this is efficient basketball or whatever. I understand that threes and layups are the most efficient, but a three pointer is suppose to be a reward for extra difficulty and, I'm sorry, but with the ease at which everyone is launching them, it sure seems a little ridiculous that they are worth 50% more than a normal basket. Are you guys really going to tell me that standing around waiting to hit a corner three is more difficult than some of these plays? Or more fun to watch? I disagree.
- It Just feels like some of the basketball-ness has been lost over the last 5-7 years. I wish that analytics were used to balance the sport from the perspective of the viewer and not just something to be exploited with no risk of any change to the incentives to the sport. What should they do to fix this? I don't know really but honestly anything would be better than these games. Move the three point line back and eliminate corner threes at minimum. Eliminate the three point line entirely I don't care. I'd rather see 7 footers bang it out in the block than 6'1 guards taking turns jacking step back threes all game. Also maybe allow a little more contact when playing defense to balance the game a bit. Does anyone actually like watching free throws? Really i'm open to anything but more than anything I just wish there was some sentiment that the game has changed for the worse in a lot fo ways and we should try to put pressure on the NBA as fans to make it better
- Also, I know I don't HAVE to watch basketball, but I like basketball the sport. I like the NBA. I used to enjoy it a lot more than I do now. It frustrates me that its changed for in my opinion the worse. This is a basketball forum so I think it's fair to say what is essentially 'basketball could be more enjoyable to watch and these are the key reasons why I feel like its less enjoyable now'.
Rant over and I hope to find some people on this basketball forum that feel the same way. Thanks for reading!
submitted by perchanches to nba [link] [comments]

Let's talk about predatory practices in the videogame industry and what we can do as consumers.

Videogames hold a very dear place in my heart. They allow me a reprieve from the daily problems of my life. They give me a space to share with friends I wouldn’t have otherwise. Every so often, a videogame will say something that touches me deeply. I’ve cried at least a couple times at the end of Metal Gear Solid 4. Maybe your experience with videogames is not quite the same, but I bet what I say rings somewhat true for anyone who’s picked up the hobby.
I’d argue that, as a piece of media, they’re works of art. They connect us and allow us to express ourselves. I’ve met some very special people to me, just by playing games online. And I’ve been able to play with them, in sandboxes and zombie infested lands and truly bonded over the time we’ve shared.
But games are also the product of hard work. They still are a piece of media to be distributed. At the end of the day, a game must be sold to keep the lights on: there’s developers to be paid, assets to be invested in, and stakeholders to answer to. So game companies adopt DRM policies, to thwart piracy and defend their product. They research new ways to reach broader audiences, and to hold their attention over the competition.
But I fear that, throughout the years, we’ve gotten it twisted. Game companies don’t talk in terms of “fun” but engagement nowadays. They don’t even call games as such anymore: platforms, live services – games as a service. But a service to who? I brought this question to a buddy who goes by the nickname EndlesNights, he replied with this:

“It's clear they only care about their bottom lines… For instance, how can we be in a time with simultaneously both record setting high profits and yet people are being let go from these corporations?”
“You can go into further details about the negative implications and implementations of always online DRM. For instance on launch day & during big events, the severs are almost always overstrained which prevents everyone from accessing the server. It creates an arbitrary expiry date for the game, where the severs will no longer be cost effective to maintain and no one will be able to launch the game anymore. It provides no benefits to the end users, and the general ficklety of the services has only turned potential customers away to acquire pirated & cracked copies.”

A lot of these AAA companies CEOs don’t really care for the games they make. To them, it’s just another product. Bobby Kotick is infamous for many things. Among these, one that has stuck to the back of my mind was his belief that videogames should be sold like detergent. Back in 2005 he hired a couple of Proctor & Gambler ex-employees for his publishing division. When interviewed, this was his reply:

"Processes that have worked well in packaged goods industry -- bringing goods to market, the process of market research and internalizing the business -- have all added the most value to our company…"Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/activision-adds-publishing-execs-with-pg-experience

Fast-forward a bit: it’s 2009, and Activison just merged with Blizzard. A bunch of their IPs were dropped, and amongst these was Brutal Legend, which seemed like it would never be published under Activision. So Double Fine negotiated with EA, who would end up publishing the game. So, of course, Activison sues EA trying to block the release of the game.Source: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2009-jun-05-fi-ct-lawsuit5-story.html
This is what Tim Schafer (Founder of Double Fine Productions) had to say regarding Mr. Kotick, after Double Fine got sued by Activision over the release of Brutal Legend by EA, back in 2010:

"His obligation is to his shareholders… Well, he doesn't have to be as much of a dick about it, does he? I think there is a way he can do it without being a total prick… He [Kotick] makes a big deal about not liking games, and I just don't think that attitude is good for games in general. I just don't think we're an industry of widgets...”
"We can approach it like we approach bars of soap, where you're just trying to make the cheapest bar of soap. He definitely has that that kind of widget-maker attitude. I don't think he's great for the industry, overall. You can't just latch onto something when it's popular and then squeeze the life out of it and then move on to the next one. You have to at some point create something, build something… Hopefully he'll go back to another industry soon.”Source: https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/schafer-calls-bobby-kotick-a-total-prick

The lawsuit was settled outside of court, btw. But the judge said he was “… strongly inclined to rule against Activision’s motion to stop the game’s release.” You draw your own conclusions.Source: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2009-aug-07-fi-activision7-story.html
So, it’s pretty clear that, at least for Activision’s CEO, games don’t hold value beyond the revenue they can bring into the company. The outcome? After the success of CoD 4, Modern Warfare, CoD became a franchise that released games yearly. The games weren’t that different from each other, and each came with it’s own new monetization scheme: microtransactions, map-packs, lootboxes, etc. This is bad. And what’s worse, the quality of the games isn’t always up to par. It can’t be, if you’re expected to pump out a product year after year, using a cookie cutter formula. And CoD isn’t the worst example of this kind of thing, it’s just the most popular and polished.
The lead up question is, are we getting the short end of the stick as consumers? And I’m hoping to build a solid case of proof and evidence to say “Yes, we are!” This attitude is not localized to Activision, but widespread across the industry. It’s not the exception, is the rule. And, somehow throughout the years, we’ve just accepted this as the way things are.
I feel that we, as gamers, make tons of excuses for game companies when they mess up in the pursuit of money, out of misplaced loyalty. Because the games they put out mean more to us than just entertainment. But AAA game companies abuse our demand for games. They wring us for all our worth with a smile and then heckle us in subtle, and not so subtle ways (Yes, I have a phone Blizzard, your game is still a free PoS for the Chinese market.)
So, the real question is, what can we do about it?
All we can do is try to rally together and vote with our wallets: the only language they understand.
I'm here to tell you the current state of the market isn't fine. We’ve gotten to this point, not because games started out as 60 dollar products with a real cost of upwards 100 dollars and spendings on the side - we let it get to this point. I’m here to put forward the motion that, sometimes, we just have to let games we love die and move on. Another one will come to take it's place. It won't be the same, but it always does anyways. It is something regrettable, but when game companies predate on consumers this hard.
Below, I’ve put together a list of companies I'm personally boycotting, along with videos and articles that back up the reasons I have for this boycott. IDK if anyone will care to go through this, I certainly hope at least one other person takes me seriously and at least reads through it, just to be informed. That’s all I can ask for.

EA

  1. Lays off 350 people, while hiring a new CEO and giving him multimillion dollar bonus
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RZ1zfEe0W8
    2. Article: https://www.businessinsider.com/electronic-arts-laying-off-350-employees-2019-3
  2. FIFA 2020 was basically a copy paste of FIFA 2019 with no Quality Assurance. This is the best example of what yearly franchises actually are. You can tell here since it's unpolished: they just forces gamers to reset their progress to 0 and spend more money trying to play catch up with their last year's progress, all the while including very minor updates to the game itself.
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9duLp9PZtWM
    2. Article: https://www.imore.com/why-you-shouldnt-buy-fifa-20-nintendo-switch
  3. List of dead studios at the hands of EA (They ran the companies and their IPs to the ground)
    1. Maxis Studios
    2. Westwood Studios
    3. Visceral Games
    4. Many more (List)... https://heavy.com/games/2017/10/studios-ea-has-killed-visceral-games/
  4. They introduced microtransactions into a single player game, allowing you to prepurchase this, along with some day 1 dlc. Maybe it's to be expected now, and they’d done it before with Mass Effect 3 (And Ubisoft did it with Assassin’s Creed), but they did it with reckless abandon.
  5. Dead Space 3 will have microtransactions, to massive public uproar:
    1. Video: https://youtu.be/6Myy5Khm12A?t=161
    2. Article: https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-01-22-dead-space-3-includes-micro-transactions-for-buying-better-weapons
  6. Oh and then they used that as a platform to shove microtransactions into EVERY GAME
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra113_O9R4E
  7. Always online DRM for a Single Player game! (Simcity 2013) This was one of the building blocks for games as a service, as this form of DRM is widely tolerated nowadays. They argued it was needed back then. They wouldn’t really say why.
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maU7vPrNRDI
    2. Article: https://kotaku.com/simcity-is-online-only-but-it-promises-not-to-repeat-d-5915377
  8. Then they backed down on that once it flopped, because they couldn’t sustain it:
    1. Article: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/13/simcity_offline_turnaround/
  9. Did I talk about the Sims online and how they only care about PR? Here's a BOOK on MMOs (just read the abstract), Second Life, and how messed up Sims online was: they never policed it, banned users if they gave them negative PR, not if they were hacking scumbags.
    1. Book: https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/second-life-herald
  10. How can we forget Battlefront 2 lootboxes, gating characters and skills behind "randomized", definitely overpriced, booster packs.
    1. Lootboxes, a rundown of the issue Article: https://mashable.com/2017/11/13/star-wars-battlefront-2-loot-box-controversy/
    2. Lootboxes get noticed (Yongyea): Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ndi8D2eRu4
    3. Lootboxes get noticed (Jim Sterling) Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUfkGSbabSo
    4. EA's reply Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qfo1Bv91ws
    5. The turning point (Belgium defines lootboxes as gambling): Video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28K6GkkaTik
    6. Some dood flexing his lootboxes online. This is what it all amounts to Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj9xrUolKb4
  11. NEVER FORGET FIFA LOOTBOXES AND HOW EA REFUSES TO TAKE RESPONSIBLITY
    1. Kid empties parent's bank account trying to get a FIFA player card Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHy7XueW6dc
    2. Article: https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/9475199/kids-parents-bank-messi-fifa-19/
    3. The addictive cost of Predatory Videogame Monetization (The Jimquisition) Video: https://youtu.be/7S-DGTBZU14
    4. Full UK parliament hearing Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPkyERMbKU8

Bioware

  1. Bioware devs getting overworked to the point of breaking down (Stress Casualities!). This came out in an article by Kotaku’s Jason Schreier about Anthem.
    1. Bioware working staff to tears and calling it "Magic" Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GN1uV57hE_w
    2. What went wrong with anthem? (Story by Kotaku's Jason Schreier) Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYDJNf4LyBsArticle: https://kotaku.com/how-biowares-anthem-went-wrong-1833731964
  2. Mass Effect Andromeda was a rushed piece of crap, just riding the popularity of Mass Effect 3
    1. Mass Effect Andromeda Troubled development history Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYDJNf4LyBs
  3. Bug makes Anthem more FUN. Bioware fixes regardless of playerbase's protests
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYDJNf4LyBs
    2. Article: https://www.polygon.com/2019/3/11/18260057/anthem-loot-update-bug-boycott

Activision-Blizzard

  1. Record revenue of the quarter after massive layoffs (770 people)
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmK43DV_wVY
    2. Article: https://kotaku.com/activision-blizzard-begins-massive-layoffs-1832571288
  2. Made Diablo 3 online only, added auction house while reducing drop rates to non-existence. On a loot-based dungeon crawler. They didn't even prepare for the amount of players who wanted to play their game at launch! They also backpedalled the AH by the expansion, upping the drop rates, prohibiting trading "because it's not in the spirit" (BTW they just wanted to stop players selling items on the side), but THE PROFIT by then. And we praised 'em for "fixing” the game after years. Ugh.
    1. Error 37, couldn't login at launch: A light read: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/error-37
    2. Article about Action house: https://blog.hoard.exchange/diablo-iiis-failed-auction-house-why-true-ownership-won-t-save-your-game-c6d692b9de1
  3. Bans player for freedom of speech. Players are on uproar. Congress gets in on the action. Blizzard backpedals publicly with the most NOTHING apology I've ever seen. Player (Blitzchung) is still banned.
    1. Article Talking about issue and the ensued apology: https://www.businessinsider.com/blizzard-apology-blizzcon-blitzchung-hong-kong-china-2019-11
    2. Video explaining issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdCNGszoP0U
    3. Blizzard CEO emits “nothing” apology at Blizzcon, play by play Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-T2_PU8rHtk
    4. Break down, of nothing apology, if you had doubts:Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDAcrhfQDqI
  4. COD opening lootboxes in front of other players gives watcher rewards to pressure them into buying lootboxes
    1. Short 1-minute video showing this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nra1UG4_1c
    2. Video explaining (By Yongyea): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkkpHVjVyFQ
  5. COD Modern Warfare Remastered did not include map-pack, then resold as dlc at a HIGHER price than the original game
    1. Article: https://kotaku.com/for-some-reason-modern-warfare-remastereds-map-pack-is-1794563753
    2. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gY9vBu0z8NQNotice how the guy, almost by reflex, makes a disclaimer to defend his PoV after pointing out this clearly predatory practice (which it is, if you think of what a remaster should be and the actual cost in production compared to the OG release, but I digress). This is what we do to each other by defending the companies. We attack each other to see who’s right and wrong, instead of just letting people voice their opinion freely (likewise you could voice support in the company’s social media “keep doing you” and the such, but it takes all kinds. Again, I digress).
  6. COD Black Ops 4 sneaks lootboxes into the game
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJYjvFsF-U8
    2. Article: https://www.destructoid.com/loot-boxes-sneak-into-call-of-duty-black-ops-4-under-a-new-name-543584.phtml

EPIC Games

  1. Cornering the Market via Exclusivity Deals, instead of making a good storefront. Here's some games that signed an exclusivity deal with EPIC Games:
    1. Metro Exodus
    2. Borderlands 3
    3. Outer Worlds
    4. Detroit: Become Human
    5. Many more! Full List: https://www.gamewatcher.com/news/Epic-games-store-exclusives
  2. Spyware, stealing your Steam Data
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8xi69sBbwo
    2. Apologist Article (So you can read both Sides): https://www.usgamer.net/articles/the-epic-games-store-is-spyware-how-a-toxic-accusation-was-started-by-anti-chinese-sentiment
    3. Reddit Thread that fired the controversy: https://www.reddit.com/PhoenixPoint/comments/b0rxdq/epic_game_store_spyware_tracking_and_you/
  3. Introduced Battle Passes cuz, who cares as long as "cosmetics only"
    1. Forbes Article – The Psychology of Fortnite’s Battle Pass: Explains how Battle Passes hook players by making them work for their reward. The sucky bit is that they also charge an entry fee, so to speak, to unlock your hard earned rewards. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiemadigan/2019/07/06/the-psychology-of-fortnites-battle-pass/#7f7f45015e61
    2. Cosmetics matter: Video by Jim Sterling exemplifying why, and how games as a service are killing videogames. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyUutk1xDew
    3. Here’s an example of a good game with cosmetic customization.Code Vein Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUtLrzHctKU
    4. Honestly, maybe I'm a dinasour that's been around for a while but I remember when cosmetics were unlockables and not DLC (as late as 2009, just look at Resident Evil 5, and that game GOT chopped up into DLC). Remember the uproar surrounding Oblivion Horse armor?Video about Horse Armor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uopSzlYo7sg

Bethesda

  1. Fallout 76 promising "No game-affecting dlc" and "no Season pass"
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR28-3lPcZA
  2. Breaks promise repeatedly
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otT6w0-jGI0
    2. Article: Added Repair Kits https://www.criticalhit.net/gaming/bethesda-breaks-promise-on-cosmetics-only-atom-store-adds-repair-kits/
    3. News Post: Bethesda justifies adding non-cosmetics to store by saying, “We’ve looked at all the data” - platforms off that to break promise further https://fallout.bethesda.net/en/article/6eNqXDms6VbtrHubE26y4new-wastelanders-release-date-private-worlds-the-atomic-shop-and-more?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app
  3. Fallout 1st and private server bugs (Stash disappearing, private worlds not private)
    1. Announcement Video: https://youtu.be/CMF5wSmQkDY
    2. Service is broken (SURPRISE) Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMF5wSmQkDY
    3. Article: https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2019/10/bethesda-pledges-to-fix-early-fallout-1st-bugs-and-complaints/
  4. Reportedly Banning a user for reporting a bug
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPabZ3vcqmc
    2. Article: https://boundingintocomics.com/2019/11/12/bethesda-reportedly-bans-creator-of-fallout-76-interactive-map-for-finding-and-reporting-an-exploit/
  5. Canvas bag debacle (buyers got a crappy nylon one, then after months of complains, actually got promised bags)
    1. Video with a nice parody song intro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvGdhzDMy4I
    2. Article: https://www.pcgamer.com/bethesda-is-finally-gonna-ship-those-damn-fallout-76-canvas-bags/
  6. One of the special edition helmets turned MOULDY and became a health hazard
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhA1NmRJPDQ
    2. Article: https://www.pcgamer.com/fallout-76-collectable-helmets-are-being-recalled-due-to-mould-risk/
  7. Nuka Rum (Terrible rum, horrible material for bottle, overpriced as all hell)
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9naBulH2e9s
    2. Article: https://theradlands.com/2018/09/10/nuka-dark-rum-is-insulting/
  8. Stupid overpriced jacket for game they are not fixing
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cReHb8xwmsI
    2. Article: https://www.pcgamer.com/twitter-reacts-to-dollar276-fallout-76-jacket-with-a-bunch-of-bag-jokes/
  9. Refuses to refund 76, forced by Australian government, but even that had caveats.
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yw3fl3wsyJ4
    2. Forum thread discussing refunds: https://www.giantbomb.com/fallout-76/3030-68742/forums/bethesda-refusing-refunds-for-fallout-76-1859009/ (This is bad. The consumer itself is going “you can’t demand a refund just because the end-product is bad) MY DUDE.
  10. Elder Scrolls Blades being a piece of crap.
    1. (Chest unlock timers in my RPG are awful)Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJHjtFx_STI
  11. Horse armor! (First time cosmetic DLCs were introduced by anyone! It was Bethesda and it was Horse Armor! We laughed at this back in the day.)
    1. It’s even a meme!: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/events/horse-armor
  12. Rereleased Doom on the Switch with new DRM for the 20 year old titles!
    1. Article: https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/26/8932026/doom-library-switch-drm-log-in-online-connection-bethesda-quakecon
    2. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dh7nZ9t2eJA (DISCLAIMER) They removed the DRM after uproar. They even fixed the buggy music.

Ubisoft

  1. Most egregious example of greedy microtransactions, with their "Time savers"
    1. Ghost Reckon Breakpoint time savers include skill points and more: Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM9JLr5KZJs
    2. Article: https://www.polygon.com/2019/10/4/20899162/ghost-recon-breakpoint-microtransactions-ubisoft-time-savers-ps4-xbox-one-pc
  2. Then they backpedalled on it and acted like those getting into the storefront in the first place Was a mistake
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIPUILFl0eo
    2. Article: https://www.pcgamer.com/ubisoft-removes-ghost-recon-breakpoints-booster-and-skill-point-microtransactions/

Warner Brothers

  1. Lootboxes in Shadow of War (which has some multiplayer, and is mostly single player, making it P2W on top of scummy. Double Scummy.)
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TXWdyrqFP8
  2. Removes Shadow of War lootboxes over half a year later. Backpedals like it's their sudden realization. What about all the players that already paid for lootboxes? What about the people that were upset about this for months?
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_XEMAVTxqE
    2. Article: https://www.pcgamer.com/middle-earth-shadow-of-war-is-ditching-loot-boxes/
  3. MKX Devs Burnout after getting worked up to 100 hours a week.
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_f_qe1-75w
    2. Article: https://www.pcgamer.com/former-devs-speak-out-about-severe-crunch-at-mortal-kombat-studio/

Telltale (It's dead now, but it's getting "revived" so worth remembering)

  1. Massive layoffs, got sued even after closing down.
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq6iX1htl28
    2. Article: https://www.polygon.com/2018/9/25/17901106/telltale-layoffs-lawsuit-warn-act
  2. Getting bought out by another company and "revived"
    1. Article: https://www.polygon.com/2019/8/28/20835854/telltale-games-return-walking-dead-lcg-entertainment

2K

  1. NBA 2K20 promoting gambling to children LIKE IT'S FINE
    1. Article: https://www.pcgamesn.com/nba-2k20/microtransactions (Video in Article has been taken down, here’s some more vids).
    2. MyTeam actual trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwN4VYzD02g
    3. Yongyea analyzes trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-junD46e9Iw
    4. PEGI defends NBA2k Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roddqD3Xqs0

Gearbox

  1. Randy Pitchford assaults employees and denies due revenue.
    1. Article: https://www.pcgamer.com/former-claptrap-voice-actor-details-randy-pitchford-assault-allegations/
    2. Video by Yongyea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7bEjCG_D8s
    3. Video by Jim Sterling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhXXpGFU2-s
  2. Alien Colonial Marines was a lie. The Demo didn't match the final product.
    1. NSFW Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eG1q3X3HxeA
    2. Photos for Comparison in this Article: https://www.ign.com/articles/2013/02/14/did-aliens-colonial-marines-screenshots-lie-to-you
    3. Article: Sega outs Gearbox for lying: https://www.destructoid.com/sega-outs-gearbox-for-lying-in-aliens-colonial-marines-case-280655.phtml

Capcom

  1. BIG day 1 dlc offender. They chopped up some characters OFF their fighting game, then added them later as DLC. The reason how we know the characters were ready at launch is because the character's data CAME WITH THE DISC and the DLC just unlocked them. They sold you a full 60 dollar game and then wanted some more, by hiding the actual cost of the FULL game through sketchy means.
    1. Article: https://www.cinemablend.com/games/Capcom-Gets-Busted-Disc-DLC-Discovered-Street-Fighter-X-Tekken-40114.html

Konami

  1. Killed P.T.
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRTwUShPFN0
  2. Full disclosure, personal grudge: Messed up MGS5. Had a fallout with Kojima, fired him, tried to remove him from the credits like he never was a part of it.
    1. Article: https://www.polygon.com/2015/3/19/8257283/metal-gear-solid-konami-branding
    2. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYLC0rLBCtI
  3. Most messed up, internal, corporate policies I've EVER seen or heard of.
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okNtRgMGNmc
  4. Konami blacklisting ex-employee, messing with their health insurance and future employment opportunities
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJawlLSkj7E
  5. Game franchise PACHINKO (Turning beloved franchises into gambling machines)
    1. Silent hill pachinko trailer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ht4dbyPIcM
    2. Metal gear Pachinko trailer (LOOK AT THOSE GRAPHICS GODDAMNIT) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVSRjJL1bv8
    3. Castlevania Pachinko trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN0Te7uTi7o

Nintendo’s Mobile Division

  1. Pads out Mario Kart Mobile with bots, WHILE not being upfront about it.
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiOCyTsg-yoIt makes you believe you’re playing with real players
  2. Animal Crossing Pocket Camp has 2 subscription models
    1. Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDaGQ-vQC8k
    2. Article: https://www.polygon.com/2019/11/20/20974027/animal-crossing-pocket-camp-subscription-plans-price-features-nintendoAnd of course the game gets crippled to incentivize you to pay for a sub.
Conclusion:
If it wasn't clear by now, the companies that come out with the game's ratings, like ESRB and PEGI, that should be watching out for consumers, just cover corporate interests! Parent’s get the short end of the stick and companies just reply with empty PR statements, like “You can check the Parental Controls for your system,” which is corporate lingo for “you’re not getting your money back, we don’t care, sorry not sorry.”
Most of the money doesn't even go to the devs, if that wasn't obvious by now. They get overworked (sometimes forced to do up to 100 hours a week!), then they get laid off anyways. The money goes to executives and stakeholders, who give each other multi-million dollar bonuses and shares. These execs act like they are nice and care about the consumer, and they even do self-deprecating jokes like they are self-aware. It's just a facade to placate us, to stay on our good side while they suck more money away from us.
Game companies don’t validate their users’ grievances. They act like nothing is wrong, shut up complainers until the noise gets too loud (which not always happens) and then just do the thing they’ve been told to do for months while pretending they came up with on their own, or act like it’s some sudden realization and they’ve always had our best interests in mind...
If that isn't obvious scumbag behavior IDK what is.
I believe it is time that we as consumers put our foot down. Not because everyone else is gonna do it too and we’re gonna enforce some major change, but just because we, as individuals, refuse to be abused so. It’s up to each of us. And if enough people follow suit the market WILL change. Even if it doesn’t, that’s not a good enough reason to keep meekly paying the abusive corporations.
So, this is a list of practices I believe should be stopped, by not supporting games that enforce them:

  1. Always online DRM.
  2. Microtransactions on full 60 dollar games.
  3. Microtransactions on exclusively Singleplayer games.
  4. Time saving microtransactions. (If you have to save my time on a game I played for entertainment, then you’re crippling it by design, instead of focusing on making it fun… just so I have to spend money to MAKE it fun. Just give me back cheat codes.)
  5. Pre-ordering (stop throwing your money at incomplete products and empty promises out of hype and misplaced loyalty).
  6. Season passes
  7. Justifying gating all good cosmetics behind microtransactions “because they don’t affect gameplay anyway”.I want to touch on this one.Cosmetics affect my gameplay experience. Growing up, a favorite part of a bunch of games was customizing my character, making it feel my own. It matters, that’s why game companies charge 10 dollars for a bunch of pixels; because enough players pay for those. Just look to Minecraft and Terraria and all those sandboxes, for crying out loud, and tell me it would be the same without the creative freedom to mod in your own skins. Why are we defending them taking that away and gating it behind MORE money? I’m not saying “DLC that comes afterwards should be free”. I’m saying, when I pay for a full priced game, I expect the full content they got, not a maimed version of it. I’m not buying a game in installments, that’s what episodic games are for.Seriously, there’s even a sense of elitism between paying players and “base skin” players in many games (Fortnite comes to mind prominently). Here, check out this talk that explains the psychology behind it in brutally honest terms by the very corporate execs that don’t really care about their consumers. Infamous Video - Let’s go whaling: Tricks for monetizing mobile game players with free-to-play: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNjI03CGkb4
  8. With that said, Battle Passes also get on the list. On top of wanting you to spend money on cosmetics, they make you grind for them. You’re no longer buying the cosmetic, you’re buying the option to get the cosmetic by investing ungodly amount of hours on their product, on top of whatever price the Battle Pass has. This is just psychological manipulation on top of unfair content gating.
  9. Gambling in video games: from lootboxes, to NBA’s predatory attempt on children. All of it. Gambling in videogames should receive an “Adult Only” rating, but if you can’t trust the ratings companies, why would you even risk being exposed to this BS?
Why support any of this anymore?
Disclaimer:
This is my take on the matter. I’ve tried to be impartial and back-up my arguments and provide as much info as I can. Truth be told, I’m quite bitter, and I’m aware. This list hurts me. I'd rather not support companies that make their living off the blood and sweat of hardworking people, and then spit in their faces. Who abuse the consumer and e-sport players and then try to take it back with lies. Who apologize like a manipulator trying to keep you nice and subdued, but do nothing about it.
We get a choice of which business practices we support and which we don't. It's up to each of us. I don’t fully expect many people to actively boycott these companies: they do provide us with valued entertainment. But I urge anyone who reads this to not be so quick to forgive, and to never forget what it used to be like, how we got here today, and what it’s cost us.
I leave you with this: These videos are a more in-depth look behind these scummy practices, and break it down pretty neatly, top to bottom.
CAAApitalism: The Successful Failure of Videogames (The Jimquisition).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmW0GhdDOvw
The Trouble with the Video Game Industry | Philosphy Tube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYkLVU5UGM8
submitted by IMightHaveBeenHacked to Games [link] [comments]

Mockingbird X.0

Imagine if there was one desk that all stories could cross so that, at 4am, a media plan could be decided upon and disseminated where all news outlets coordinated to set the goalposts of debate and hyper focused on specific issues to drive a narrative to control how you vote and how you spend money; where Internet shills were given marching orders in tandem to what was shown on television, printed in newspapers and spread throughout articles on the World Wide Web.
https://i.imgur.com/Elnci0M.png
In the past, we had Operation Mockingbird, where the program was supremely confident that it could control stories around the world, even in instructions to cover up any story about a possible “Yeti” sighting, should it turn out they were real.
https://i.imgur.com/121LXqy.png
If, in 1959, the government was confident in its ability to control a story about a Yeti, then what is their level of confidence in controlling stories, today?
https://i.imgur.com/jQFVYew.png
https://i.imgur.com/ZKMYGJj.png
In fact, we have a recent example of a situation similar to the Yeti. When Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch met on the TARMAC to spike the Hillary email investigation, the FBI was so confident it wasn’t them, that their entire focus was finding the leaker, starting with searching within the local PD. We have documentation that demonstrates the state of mind of the confidence the upper levels of the FBI have when dealing with the media.
https://i.imgur.com/IbjDOkI.png
https://i.imgur.com/NH86ozU.png
The marriage between mainstream media and government is a literal one and this arrangement is perfectly legal.
https://i.imgur.com/OAd4vpf.png
But, this problem extends far beyond politics; the private sector, the scientific community, even advice forums are shilled heavily. People are paid to cause anxiety, recommend people break up and otherwise sow depression and nervousness. This is due to a correlating force that employs “systems psychodynamics”, focusing on “tension centered” strategies to create “organizational paradoxes” by targeting people’s basic assumptions about the world around them to create division and provide distraction.
https://i.imgur.com/6OEWYFN.png
https://i.imgur.com/iG4sdD4.png
https://i.imgur.com/e89Rx6B.png
https://i.imgur.com/uotm9Cg.png
https://i.imgur.com/74wt9tD.png
In this day and age, it is even easier to manage these concepts and push a controlled narrative from a central figure than it has ever been. Allen & Co is a “boutique investment firm” that managed the merger between Disney and Fox and operates as an overseeing force for nearly all media and Internet shill armies, while having it’s fingers in sports, social media, video games, health insurance, etc.
https://i.imgur.com/zlpBh3c.png
https://i.imgur.com/e5ZvFFJ.png
Former director of the CIA and Paul Brennan’s former superior George Tenet, holds the reigns of Allen & Co. The cast of characters involves a lot of the usual suspects.
https://i.imgur.com/3OlrX7G.png
In 1973, Allen & Company bought a stake in Columbia Pictures. When the business was sold in 1982 to Coca-Cola, it netted a significant profit. Since then, Herbert Allen, Jr. has had a place on Coca-Cola's board of directors.
Since its founding in 1982, the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference has regularly drawn high-profile attendees such as Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Rupert Murdoch, Barry Diller, Michael Eisner, Oprah Winfrey, Robert Johnson, Andy Grove, Richard Parsons, and Donald Keough.
Allen & Co. was one of ten underwriters for the Google initial public offering in 2004. In 2007, Allen was sole advisor to Activision in its $18 billion merger with Vivendi Games. In 2011, the New York Mets hired Allen & Co. to sell a minority stake of the team. That deal later fell apart. In November 2013, Allen & Co. was one of seven underwriters on the initial public offering of Twitter. Allen & Co. was the adviser of Facebook in its $19 billion acquisition of WhatsApp in February 2014.
In 2015, Allen & Co. was the advisor to Time Warner in its $80 billion 2015 merger with Charter Communications, AOL in its acquisition by Verizon, Centene Corporation in its $6.8 billion acquisition of Health Net, and eBay in its separation from PayPal.
In 2016, Allen & Co was the lead advisor to Time Warner in its $108 billion acquisition by AT&T, LinkedIn for its merger talks with Microsoft, Walmart in its $3.3 billion purchase of Jet.com, and Verizon in its $4.8 billion acquisition of Yahoo!. In 2017, Allen & Co. was the advisor to Chewy.com in PetSmart’s $3.35 billion purchase of the online retailer.
Allen & Co throws the Sun Valley Conference every year where you get a glimpse of who sows up. Harvey Weinstein, though a past visitor, was not invited last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_%26_Company_Sun_Valley_Conference
Previous conference guests have included Bill and Melinda Gates, Warren and Susan Buffett, Tony Blair, Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Allen alumnus and former Philippine Senator Mar Roxas, Google Chairman Eric Schmidt, Quicken Loans Founder & Chairman Dan Gilbert, Yahoo! co-founder Jerry Yang, financier George Soros, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, Media Mogul Rupert Murdoch, eBay CEO Meg Whitman, BET founder Robert Johnson, Time Warner Chairman Richard Parsons, Nike founder and chairman Phil Knight, Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell, NBA player LeBron James, Professor and Entrepreneur Sebastian Thrun, Governor Chris Christie, entertainer Dan Chandler, Katharine Graham of The Washington Post, Diane Sawyer, InterActiveCorp Chairman Barry Diller, Linkedin co-founder Reid Hoffman, entrepreneur Wences Casares, EXOR and FCA Chairman John Elkann, Sandro Salsano from Salsano Group, and Washington Post CEO Donald E. Graham, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, and Oprah Winfrey.
https://i.imgur.com/VZ0OtFa.png
George Tenet, with the reigns of Allen & Co in his hands, is able to single-handedly steer the entire Mockingbird apparatus from cable television to video games to Internet shills from a singular location determining the spectrum of allowable debate. Not only are they able to target people’s conscious psychology, they can target people’s endocrine systems with food and pornography; where people are unaware, on a conscious level, of how their moods and behavior are being manipulated.
https://i.imgur.com/mA3MzTB.png
"The problem with George Tenet is that he doesn't seem to care to get his facts straight. He is not meticulous. He is willing to make up stories that suit his purposes and to suppress information that does not."
"Sadly but fittingly, 'At the Center of the Storm' is likely to remind us that sometimes what lies at the center of a storm is a deafening silence."
https://i.imgur.com/YHMJnnP.png
Tenet joined President-elect Bill Clinton's national security transition team in November 1992. Clinton appointed Tenet Senior Director for Intelligence Programs at the National Security Council, where he served from 1993 to 1995. Tenet was appointed Deputy Director of Central Intelligence in July 1995. Tenet held the position as the DCI from July 1997 to July 2004. Citing "personal reasons," Tenet submitted his resignation to President Bush on June 3, 2004. Tenet said his resignation "was a personal decision and had only one basis—in fact, the well-being of my wonderful family—nothing more and nothing less. In February 2008, he became a managing director at investment bank Allen & Company.
https://i.imgur.com/JnGHqOS.png
We have the documentation that demonstrates what these people could possibly be doing with all of these tools of manipulation at their fingertips.
The term for it is “covert political action” for which all media put before your eyes is used to serve as a veneer… a reality TV show facade of a darker modus operandum.
https://i.imgur.com/vZC4D29.png
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol36no3/html/v36i3a05p_0001.htm
It is now clear that we are facing an implacable enemy whose avowed objective is world domination by whatever means and at whatever costs. There are no rules in such a game. Hitherto acceptable norms of human conduct do not apply. If the US is to survive, longstanding American concepts of "fair play" must be reconsidered. We must develop effective espionage and counterespionage services and must learn to subvert, sabotage and destroy our enemies by more clever, more sophisticated means than those used against us. It may become necessary that the American people be made acquainted with, understand and support this fundamentally repugnant philosophy.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/3340677/t/cia-operatives-shadowy-war-force/
Intelligence historian Jeffrey T. Richelson says the S.A. has covered a variety of missions. The group, which recently was reorganized, has had about 200 officers, divided among several groups: the Special Operations Group; the Foreign Training Group, which trains foreign police and intelligence officers; the Propaganda and Political Action Group, which handles disinformation; the Computer Operations Group, which handles information warfare; and the Proprietary Management Staff, which manages whatever companies the CIA sets up as covers for the S.A.
Scientology as a CIA Political Action Group – “It is a continuing arrangement…”: https://mikemcclaughry.wordpress.com/2015/08/25/scientology-as-a-cia-political-action-group-it-is-a-continuing-arrangement/
…Those operations we inaugurated in the years 1955-7 are still secret, but, for present purposes, I can say all that’s worth saying about them in a few sentences – after, that is, I offer these few words of wisdom. The ‘perfect’ political action operation is, by definition, uneventful. Nothing ‘happens’ in it. It is a continuing arrangement, neither a process nor a series of actions proceeding at a starting point and ending with a conclusion.
CIA FBI NSA Personnel Active in Scientology: https://i.imgur.com/acu2Eti.png
When you consider the number of forces that can be contained within a single “political action group” in the form on a “boutique investment firm,” where all sides of political arguments are predetermined by a selected group of actors who have been planted, compromised or leveraged in some way in order to control the way they spin their message.
https://i.imgur.com/tU4MD4S.png
The evidence of this coordinated effort is overwhelming and the “consensus” that you see on TV, in sports, in Hollywood, in the news and on the Internet is fabricated.
Under the guise of a fake account a posting is made which looks legitimate and is towards the truth is made - but the critical point is that it has a VERY WEAK PREMISE without substantive proof to back the posting. Once this is done then under alternative fake accounts a very strong position in your favour is slowly introduced over the life of the posting. It is IMPERATIVE that both sides are initially presented, so the uninformed reader cannot determine which side is the truth. As postings and replies are made the stronger 'evidence' or disinformation in your favour is slowly 'seeded in.'
Thus the uninformed reader will most likely develop the same position as you, and if their position is against you their opposition to your posting will be most likely dropped. However in some cases where the forum members are highly educated and can counter your disinformation with real facts and linked postings, you can then 'abort' the consensus cracking by initiating a 'forum slide.'
When you find yourself feeling like common sense and common courtesy aren’t as common as they ought to be, it is because there is a massive psychological operation controlled from the top down to ensure that as many people as possible are caught in a “tension based” mental loop that is inflicted on them by people acting with purpose to achieve goals that are not in the interest of the general population, but a method of operating in secret and corrupt manner without consequences.
Notice that Jeffrey Katzenberg, of Disney, who is intertwined with Allen & Co funds the Young Turks. He is the perfect example of the relationship between media and politics.
Katzenberg has also been involved in politics. With his active support of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, he was called "one of Hollywood's premier political kingmakers and one of the Democratic Party's top national fundraisers."
With cash from Jeffrey Katzenberg, The Young Turks looks to grow paid subscribers:
https://digiday.com/media/with-cash-from-katzenberg-the-young-turks-look-to-grow-paid-subscribers/
Last week, former DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg’s new mobile entertainment company WndrCo was part of a $20 million funding round in TYT Network, which oversees 30 news and commentary shows covering politics, pop culture, sports and more. This includes the flagship “The Young Turks” program that streams live on YouTube every day. Other investors in the round included venture capital firms Greycroft Partners, E.ventures and 3L Capital, which led the round. This brings total funding for Young Turks to $24 million.
How Hollywood's Political Donors Are Changing Strategies for the Trump Era:
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/hollywood-political-donors-are-changing-strategy-post-trump-1150545
Hollywood activism long has been depicted as a club controlled by a handful of powerful white men: Katzenberg, Spielberg, Lear, David Geffen, Haim Saban and Bob Iger are the names most often mentioned. But a new generation of power brokers is ascendant, including J.J. Abrams and his wife, Katie McGrath, cited for their personal donations and bundling skills; Shonda Rhimes, who held a get-out-the-vote rally at USC's Galen Center on Sept. 28 that drew 10,000 people; CAA's Darnell Strom, who has hosted events for Nevada congresswoman Jacky Rosen and Arizona congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema; and former Spotify executive Troy Carter, who held three fundraisers for Maryland gubernatorial candidate Ben Jealous (Carter also was a fundraiser for President Obama).
Soros Group Buys Viacom's DreamWorks Film Library:
https://www.forbes.com/2006/03/17/soros-viacom-dreamworks-cx_gl_0317autofacescan11.html#541a895f1f22
Viacom, after splitting off from Les Moonves Les Moonves ' CBS , still holds Paramount Pictures, and that movie studio in December agreed to acquire DreamWorks SKG, the creative shop founded by the Hollywood triumvirate of Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenberg (a former exec at The Walt Disney Co.). DreamWorks Animation had been spun off into a separate company.
Now it's time for Freston to make back some money--and who better to do a little business with than George Soros? The billionaire financier leads a consortium of Soros Strategic Partners LP and Dune Entertainment II LLC, which together are buying the DreamWorks library--a collection of 59 flicks, including Saving Private Ryan, Gladiator, and American Beauty.
The money you spend on media and junk food and in taxes goes to these groups who then decide how best to market at you so that they decide how you vote by creating a fake consensus to trick into thinking that you want something other than what is best for you; but will inevitably result in more money being funneled to the top, creating further separation between the super rich and the average person. The goal will be to assert creeping authoritarianism by generating outrage against policies and issues they hate. Part of manipulating your basic assumptions is also to use schadenfreude (think canned laughter on TV) against characters who support the cause that might actually do you the most good (which reaffirms and strengthens your confirmation biased along predetermined political lines).
https://i.imgur.com/PW1cRtj.png
We have a population being taught to hate socialism and love capitalism when the truth is no country is practicing either. These terms are merely disguises for political oligarchies where the collection of wealth is less about getting themselves rich and more about keeping everyone else poor.
What can you guess about the world around you if it turned out that every consensus that was forced on you was fake?
How much money would it take to make it look like 51% of the Internet believed in completely idiotic ideas? Combine shill operations with automation and AI’s, and the cost becomes a good investment relative to the return when measured in political power.
Even the people who are well intentioned and very vocal do not have to consciously be aware that they are working for a political action group. A covert political group will always prefer an unwitting tool to help push their agenda, so that they can remain in the shadows.
FDA Admonishes Drug Maker Over Kim Kardashian Instagram Endorsement https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkroll/2015/08/11/fda-spanks-drug-maker-over-kim-kardashian-instagram-endorsement/#25174a29587b
The OSS files offer details about other agents than famous chef, Julia Child; including Supreme Court Justice Arthur Goldberg, major league catcher Moe Berg, historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr., and actor Sterling Hayden. http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26186498/ns/us_news-security/t/julia-child-cooked-double-life-spy/
USA Today: Businesses and organizations may refer to it as a tool for competitive advantage and marketing; but make no mistake http://archive.is/37tK3
Shareblue accounts caught in /politics posting links to Shareblue without disclosing their affiliation http://archive.is/7HAkr
Psy Group developed elaborate information operations for commercial clients and political candidates around the world http://archive.is/BBblQ
Top mod of /Mechanical_Gifs tries to sell subreddit on ebay for 999.00 dollars. http://archive.is/kU1Ly
Shill posts picture of a dog in a hammock with the brand clearly visible without indicating that it's an ad in the title of the post http://archive.is/Mfdk9
Arstechnica: GCHQs menu of tools spreads disinformation across Internet- “Effects capabilities” allow analysts to twist truth subtly or spam relentlessly. http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/07/ghcqs-chinese-menu-of-tools-spread-disinformation-across-internet/
Samsung Electronics Fined for Fake Online Comments http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/24/samsung-electronics-fined-for-fake-online-comments/?_r=0
Discover Magazine: Researchers Uncover Twitter Bot Army That’s 350 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2017/01/20/twitter-bot-army/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20DiscoverTechnology%20%28Discover%20Technology%29#.WIMl-oiLTnA
Times of Israel - The internet: Israel’s new PR battlefield http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-rise-of-digital-diplomacy-could-be-changing-israels-media-image/
Time: Social Media Manipulation? When “Indie” Bloggers and Businesses Get Cozy http://business.time.com/2013/04/22/social-media-manipulation-when-indie-bloggers-and-businesses-get-cozy/
Content-Driven Detection of Campaigns in Social Media [PDF] http://faculty.cs.tamu.edu/caverlee/pubs/lee11cikm.pdf
the law preventing them from using this in America was repealed http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/07/14/u-s-repeals-propaganda-ban-spreads-government-made-news-to-americans/
Redditor who works for a potato mailing company admits to being a shill. He shows off his 27 thousand dollars he made in /pics
http://i.imgur.com/CcTHwdS.png
Screenshot of post since it was removed. http://i.imgur.com/k9g0WF8.png
Just thought I'd contribute to this thread http://imgur.com/OpSos4u
CNN: A PR firm has revealed that it is behind two blogs that previously appeared to be created by independent supporters of Wal-Mart. The blogs Working Families for Wal-mart and subsidiary site Paid Critics are written by 3 employees of PR firm Edelman http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/20/news/companies/walmart_blogs/index.htm
Vice: Your Government Wants to Militarize Social Media to Influence Your Beliefs http://motherboard.vice.com/read/your-government-wants-to-militarize-social-media-to-influence-your-beliefs
BBC News: China's Internet spin doctors http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7783640.stm
BBC News: US plans to 'fight the net' revealed http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4655196.stm
Wall Street Journal: Turkey's Government Forms 6 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323527004579079151479634742?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424127887323527004579079151479634742.html
Fake product reviews may be pervasive http://phys.org/news/2013-07-fake-product-pervasive.html#nRlv
USA Today: The co-owner of a major Pentagon propaganda contractor publicly admitted that he was behind a series of websites used in an attempt to discredit two USA TODAY journalists who had reported on the contractor. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/military/story/2012-05-24/Leonie-usa-today-propaganda-pentagon/55190450/1
ADWEEK: Marketing on Reddit Is Scary http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/marketing-reddit-scary-these-success-stories-show-big-potential-168278
BBC- How online chatbots are already tricking you- Intelligent machines that can pass for humans have long been dreamed of http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140609-how-online-bots-are-tricking-you
BBC news: Amazon targets 1 http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34565631
BBC: More than four times as many tweets were made by automated accounts in favour of Donald Trump around the first US presidential debate as by those backing Hillary Clinton http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37684418
Fake five-star reviews being bought and sold online - Fake online reviews are being openly traded on the internet
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43907695
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-20982985
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-20982985
Bloomberg: How to Hack an Election [and influence voters with fake social media accounts] http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-how-to-hack-an-election/
"Internet Reputation Management http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2008-04-30/do-reputation-management-services-work-businessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice
Buzzfeed: Documents Show How Russia’s Troll Army Hit America http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/documents-show-how-russias-troll-army-hit-america#.ki8Mz97ly
The Rise of Social Bots http://www.cacm.acm.org/magazines/2016/7/204021-the-rise-of-social-bots/fulltext
CBC News- Canadian government monitors online forums http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bureaucrats-monitor-online-forums-1.906351
Chicago Tribune: Nutrition for sale: How Kellogg worked with 'independent experts' to tout cereal http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-kellogg-independent-experts-cereal-20161121-story.html
DailyKos: HBGary: Automated social media management http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/02/16/945768/-UPDATED-The-HB-Gary-Email-That-Should-Concern-Us-All
Meme Warfare Center http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tfulltext/u2/a507172.pdf
Shilling on Reddit is openly admitted to in this Forbes article http://www.forbes.com/sites/julesschroede2016/03/10/the-magic-formula-behind-going-viral-on-reddit/#1d2485b05271
Forbes: From Tinder Bots To 'Cuban Twitter' http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/04/17/from-tinder-bots-to-covert-social-networks-welcome-to-cognitive-hacking/#4b78e2d92a7d
Hivemind http://www.hivemind.cc/rank/shills
Huffington Post- Exposing Cyber Shills and Social Media's Underworld http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sam-fiorella/cyber-shills_b_2803801.html
The Independent: Massive British PR firm caught on video: "We've got all sorts of dark arts...The ambition is to drown that negative content and make sure that you have positive content online." They discuss techniques for managing reputations online and creating/maintaining 3rd-party blogs that seem independent. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/caught-on-camera-top-lobbyists-boasting-how-they-influence-the-pm-6272760.html
New York Times: Lifestyle Lift http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/technology/internet/15lift.html?_r=1&emc=eta1
New York Times: Give Yourself 5 Stars? Online http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/23/technology/give-yourself-4-stars-online-it-might-cost-you.html?src=me&ref=general
NY Times- From a nondescript office building in St. Petersburg http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/magazine/the-agency.html?_r=1
NY Times: Effort to Expose Russia’s ‘Troll Army’ Draws Vicious Retaliation http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/31/world/europe/russia-finland-nato-trolls.html?_r=1
PBS Frontline Documentary - Generation Like http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/generation-like/
Gamers promote gaming-gambling site on youtube by pretending to hit jackpot without disclosing that they own the site. They tried to retroactively write a disclosure covering their tracks http://www.pcgamer.com/csgo-lotto-investigation-uncovers-colossal-conflict-of-interest/
Raw Story: CENTCOM engages bloggers http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Raw_obtains_CENTCOM_email_to_bloggers_1016.html
Raw Story: Air Force ordered software to manage army of fake virtual people http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/18/revealed-air-force-ordered-software-to-manage-army-of-fake-virtual-people/
Redective http://www.redective.com/?r=e&a=search&s=subreddit&t=redective&q=shills
Salon: Why Reddit moderators are censoring Glenn Greenwald’s latest news story on shills http://www.salon.com/2014/02/28/why_reddit_moderators_are_censoring_glenn_greenwalds_latest_bombshell_partne
The Atlantic: Kim Kardashian was paid to post a selfie on Instagram and Twitter advertising a pharmaceutical product. Sent to 42 million followers on Instagram and 32 million on Twitter http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2015/09/fda-drug-promotion-social-media/404563/
WAR.COM: THE INTERNET AND PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS http://www.theblackvault.com/documents/ADA389269.pdf
The Guardian: Internet Astroturfing http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/libertycentral/2010/dec/13/astroturf-libertarians-internet-democracy
The Guardian: Israel ups the stakes in the propaganda war http://www.theguardian.com/media/2006/nov/20/mondaymediasection.israel
Operation Earnest Voice http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/ma17/us-spy-operation-social-networks
The Guardian: British army creates team of Facebook warriors http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/31/british-army-facebook-warriors-77th-brigade
The Guardian: US military studied how to influence Twitter [and Reddit] users in Darpa-funded research [2014] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/08/darpa-social-networks-research-twitter-influence-studies
The Guardian: Chinese officials flood the Chinese internet with positive social media posts to distract their population http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/chinese-officials-create-488m-social-media-posts-a-year-study-finds
Times of Israel: Israeli government paying bilingual students to spread propaganda online primarily to international communities without having to identify themselves as working for the government. "The [student] union will operate computer rooms for the project...it was decided to establish a permanent structure of activity on the Internet through the students at academic institutions in the country." http://www.timesofisrael.com/pmo-stealthily-recruiting-students-for-online-advocacy/
USA Today: Lord & Taylor settles FTC charges over paid Instagram posts http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/03/15/lord--taylor-settles-ftc-charges-over-paid-instagram-posts/81801972/
Researcher's algorithm weeds out people using multiple online accounts to spread propaganda - Based on word choice http://www.utsa.edu/today/2016/10/astroturfing.html
http://www.webinknow.com/2008/12/the-us-air-force-armed-with-social-media.html
Wired: Powered by rapid advances in artificial intelligence http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/06/wired-world-2015/robot-propaganda
Wired: Clinton Staff and Volunteers Busted for Astroturfing [in 2007] http://www.wired.com/2007/12/clinton-staff-a/
Wired: Pro-Government Twitter Bots Try to Hush Mexican Activists http://www.wired.com/2015/08/pro-government-twitter-bots-try-hush-mexican-activists/
Wired: Microsoft http://www.wired.com/2015/09/ftc-machinima-microsoft-youtube/
Wired: Military Report: Secretly ‘Recruit or Hire Bloggers’ http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/03/report-recruit/
Wired: Air Force Releases ‘Counter-Blog’ Marching Orders http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/01/usaf-blog-respo/
Reddit Secrets https://archive.fo/NAwBx
Reddit Secrets https://archive.fo/SCWN7
Boostupvotes.com https://archive.fo/WdbYQ
"Once we isolate key people https://archive.is/PoUMo
GCHQ has their own internet shilling program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Threat_Research_Intelligence_Group
Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-sponsored_Internet_sockpuppetry
US also operates in conjunction with the UK to collect and share intelligence data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement
Glenn Greenwald: How Covert Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/
Glenn Greenwald: Hacking Online Polls and Other Ways British Spies Seek to Control the Internet https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/07/14/manipulating-online-polls-ways-british-spies-seek-control-internet/
Here is a direct link to your image for the benefit of mobile users https://imgur.com/OpSos4u.jpg
Reddit for iPhone https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/reddit-the-official-app/id1064216828?mt=8
Why Satoshi Nakamoto Has Gone https://medium.com/@ducktatosatoshi-nakamoto-has-gone-4cef923d7acd
What I learned selling my Reddit accounts https://medium.com/@Rob79/what-i-learned-selling-my-reddit-accounts-c5e9f6348005#.u5zt0mti3
Artificial intelligence chatbots will overwhelm human speech online; the rise of MADCOMs https://medium.com/artificial-intelligence-policy-laws-and-ethics/artificial-intelligence-chatbots-will-overwhelm-human-speech-online-the-rise-of-madcoms-e007818f31a1
How Reddit Got Huge: Tons of Fake Accounts - According to Reddit cofounder Steve Huffman https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/how-reddit-got-huge-tons-of-fake-accounts--2
Whistleblower and subsequent investigation: Paid trolls on /Bitcoin https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/34m7yn/professional_bitcoin_trolls_exist/cqwjdlw
Confession of Hillary Shill from /SandersForPresident https://np.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/3rncq9/confession_of_hillary_shill_from/
Why do I exist? https://np.reddit.com/DirectImageLinkerBot/wiki/index
Already a direct link? https://np.reddit.com/DirectImageLinkerBot/wiki/res_links
Here's the thread. https://np.reddit.com/HailCorporate/comments/3gl8zi/that_potato_mailing_company_is_at_it_again/
/netsec talks about gaming reddit via sockpuppets and how online discourse is (easily) manipulated. https://np.reddit.com/netsec/comments/38wl43/we_used_sock_puppets_in_rnetsec_last_year_and_are
Redditor comes clean about being paid to chat on Reddit. They work to promote a politician https://np.reddit.com/offmychest/comments/3gk56y/i_get_paid_to_chat_on_reddit/
Shill whistleblower https://np.reddit.com/politics/comments/rtr6b/a_very_interesting_insight_into_how_certain/
Russian bots were active on Reddit last year https://np.reddit.com/RussiaLago/comments/76cq4d/exclusive_we_can_now_definitively_state_that/?st=j8s7535j&sh=36805d5d
The Bush and Gore campaigns of 2000 used methods similar to the Chinese government for conducting “guided discussions” in chatrooms designed to influence citizens https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/3xhoq8/til_the_advent_of_social_media_offers_new_routes/?st=j0o5xr9c&sh=3662f0dc
source paper. https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/4d3l3s/government_agents_and_their_allies_might_ente
or Click Here. https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/4kdq7n/astroturfing_information_megathread_revision_8/?st=iwlbcoon&sh=9e44591e Alleged paid shill leaks details of organization and actions.
https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/4wl19alleged_paid_shill_leaks_details_of_organization/?st=irktcssh&sh=8713f4be
Shill Confessions and Additional Information https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/5pzcnx/shill_confessions_and_additional_information/?st=izz0ga8r&sh=43621acd
Corporate and governmental manipulation of Wikipedia articles https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/5sb7pi/new_york_times_corporate_editing_of_wikipedia/?st=iyteny9b&sh=b488263f
Ex -MMA fighter and ex-police officer exposes corrupt police practices https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/6jn27s/ex_mma_fighter_and_expolice_officer_exposes/
User pushes InfoWars links on Reddit https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/6uau99/chemicals_in_reddit_are_turning_memes_gay_take/?st=j6r0g2om&sh=96f3dbf4
Some websites use shill accounts to spam their competitor's articles https://np.reddit.com/TheoryOfReddit/comments/1ja4nf/lets_talk_about_those_playing_reddit_with/?st=iunay35w&sh=d841095d
User posts video using GoPro https://np.reddit.com/videos/comments/2ejpbb/yes_it_is_true_i_boiled_my_gopro_to_get_you_this/ck0btnb/?context=3&st=j0qt0xnf&sh=ef13ba81
Fracking shill whistleblower spills the beans on Fracking Internet PR https://np.reddit.com/worldnews/comments/31wo57/the_chevron_tapes_video_shows_oil_giant_allegedly/cq5uhse?context=3
https://i.imgur.com/Q3gjFg9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/q2uFIV0.jpg
TOP SECRET SPECIAL HANDLING NOFORN
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Operations
October 16, 1964
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR OF THE CIA
Subject: After action report of
Operation CUCKOO (TS)
INTRODUCTION

1) Operation CUCKOO was part of the overall operation CLEANSWEEP, aimed at eliminating domestic opposition to activities undertaken by the Central Intelligence Agency's special activities division, in main regard to operation GUILLOTINE.

2) Operation CUCKOO was approved by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Department of Defense and the office of The President of the United States as a covert domestic action to be under taken within the limits of Washington D.C as outlined by Secret Executive Order 37.

3) Following the publishing of the Warren Commission, former special agent Mary Pinchot Meyer (Operation MOCKINGBIRD, Operation SIREN) also was married to Cord Meyer (Operation MOCKINGBIRD, Operation GUILLOTINE) threatened to disclose the details of several Special Activities Divisions' operations, including but not limited to, Operation SIREN and GUILLOTENE.
​1
TOP SECRET SPECIAL HANDLING NOFORN
4) It was deemed necessary by senior Directorate of Operations members to initiate Operation CUCKOO as an extension of Operation CLEANSWEEP on November 30th. After Mary Pinchot Meyer threatened to report her knowledge of Operation GUILLOTENE and the details of her work in Operation SIREN from her affair with the former President.

5) Special Activities Division was given the green light after briefing president Johnson on the situation. The situation report was forwarded to the Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of staff, who both approved of the parameters of the operation, as outlined under article C of secret executive order 37 (see attached copy of article).
​PLANNING STAGES
6) 8 members of the special activities division handpicked by operation lead William King Harvey began planning for the operation on October 3rd, with planned execution before October 16th.

7) The (?) of the operation was set as the neighborhood of Georgetown along the Potomac river, where the operators would observe, take note on routines, and eventually carry the operation.

8) After nothing Meyer's routines, Edward "Eddy" Reid was picked as the operation point man who would intersect Meyer on her walk on October 12th, with lead William King Harvey providing long range support if necessary from across the Chesapeake and Ohio canal (see illustration A for detailed map).

9) Edward Reid was planned to be dressed in the manner of a homeless black man, due to his resemblances to local trash collector (later found out to be Raymond Crump) who inhabits the AO and the path that Reid was planned to intersect Meyer.
2
TOP SECRET SPECIAL HANDLING NOFORN
submitted by The_Web_Of_Slime to Intelligence [link] [comments]

Barr's Betting | $200K+ Lifetime | Machine Learning / Statistics | (New) Value Algorithm

Good afternoon Redditors, hopefully your weekend is starting off right and your bets are getting those early dollars or just starting in the upcoming few slots. I'm here today as I begin to expand my audience.
A quick bit of information about me, I'm a computer science and statistics double major. I've combined my expertise/education with my `life-long hobby` 😉 to try and give myself the best possible advantages to predict games and produce money. I've been working hard on this (different algorithms) for years. My most recent one I began testing on 9/28/18 to this day (11/23/19). This model has been so successful (as you can see from my title) that this has become my full-time job. Some results from my `VIP-Model` in the little over a year: +$201,136 (based on a $550 bet), or ~$36,570.18 for the average $100 bettor 1,331 (Wins) - 877 (Losses) - 60 (Pushes) -108 Average Odds +16.13% ROI Not bad at all, but I'm always striving for better. I know there's no perfect in betting, but of course I want to be it.
Yesterday's VIP plays:
[NCAAB] BAYLOR VS. COASTAL CAROLINA OVER 146.5 (-115) (LOSS) [NHL] NEW YORK RANGERS (ML) (+106) VS. OTTAWA SENATORS (LOSS) [NBA] MIAMI HEAT VS. CHICAGO BULLS +4.5 (+103) (LOSS) [NCAAB] KENNESAW ST VS. MONMOUTH OVER 137 (-115) (LOSS) [NBA] HOUSTON ROCKETS VS. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -5 (-105) (LOSS)
There's 6 plays today, I'm playing on:
[NCAAF] UTEP VS. MEXICO STATE [NCAAF] FLORIDA ATLANTIC VS. TEXAS SAN ANTONIO [NBA] ORLANDO MAGIC VS. INDIANA PACERS [NHL] ANAHEIM DUCKS VS. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING [NBA] SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS. NEW YORK KNICKS [NHL] NEW YORK ISLANDERS VS. SAN JOSE SHARKS
However, that's just an introduction to me and what I've been up to over the last year. As of late, after I publish my VIP picks I've been working on a new `Value-Model` where it's primarily focused on comparing Vegas odds vs. the projected `actual` value produced by this model on 10,000 simulated games. It'll be interesting because I'm focused on only ATS and ML games in NBA + NFL. My other model normally bets totals and all sports. So it'll be interesting to see how my new focused direction compares with my current `successful` model. I've already had them pick against each other a few times 😅
I will be testing this new model PUBLICLY (releasing the plays before the game(s)) and keeping track of the results for AT LEAST 1 week.
Yesterday's plays, posted in my Discord:
[NBA-ATS] Oklahoma City Thunder +4 (1 unit - $100) +$90.90 [NBA-ML] Oklahoma City Thunder @ +149 (1 unit - $100) -$100 [NBA-ML] Philadelphia 76ers @ -280 (1 unit - $100) +$35.70 OVERALL RESULTS: 2-1-0 (+0.266 units)
OVERALL NBA RESULTS: 2-1-0 (+0.266 units) NBA ATS RESULTS: 1-0-0 (+0.9090 units) NBA ML RESULTS: 1-1-0 (-0.643 units)
OVERALL NFL RESULTS: 0-0-0 (+0 units) NFL ATS RESULTS: 0-0-0 (+0 units) NFL ML RESULTS: 0-0-0 (+0 units)
I keep track of my plays in my discord (and other forum threads), I'm not sure if I'm allowed to advertise/link it in this post considering this group doesn't have rules on the right hand side. I'll leave it off this post, but if someone can let me know in the chat, that would be great. It's linked in my profile if you're interested.
Today's Value Algorithm plays:
[NBA-ATS] Charlotte Hornets +2 (1 unit - $100) [NBA-ATS] Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 (1 unit - $100) [NBA-ATS] Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 (1 unit - $100) [NBA-ML] Charlotte Hornets @ +104 (1 unit - $100) [NBA-ML] Utah Jazz @ -230 (1 unit - $100)
It think the actual value of the Hornets today are -3 and @ -150 ML
Some other strong leads are Memphis +7.5 (thinks they're actually +2.5). Not betting it though, will see if I add it to the slate later, I'll update the post.
Good luck with bets today!
submitted by Sh3dSpong to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

NBA Daily Fantasy Plays & Stats ( November 11, 2019 ) from CheatSheetPros!

NBA Plays & Stats for November 11th from CheatSheetPros! << UP arrow if you like the content in this forum! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
With NBA season now in full swing we launched our NBA Algo Best Bets and advised people to play #1 and #2 rated games! We started off 3-2 (just missing a 4-1 opening night) then we followed that up with a 6-0 Saturday and 4-0 Sunday for an amazing 13-2 run for the 2019/2020 NBA Season! Our top GPP Algo plays have also been off to a red hot start!
FREE NBA OPTIMIZER (COMING SOON!)
We have been providing a FREE NFL Web Optimizer and now our Draftkings version of our NBA Optimizer is only a couple days away from being live! So stay tuned!
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:
I’m not going to focus on the cheap value plays that are popping up all over as everyone is well aware of them. I’m going to focus on some GPP players in good spots with high upside.
BRANDON INGRAM (7800) – Across 8 games this year he is averaging a nice 47.7 DK points which is just over 6x his current salary. He has also exceeded 55 DK points in 3 of those 8 games with a high of 63.25 DK points. He has a nice game total of 243 and Houston is allowing 9 more points to his position than league average for a 9.7% improved spot. Not to mention he dropped 60+ last time he faced them. Should be in line for a solid 5x floor and good shot at 6x value.
LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE (6300) – What jumps out at me here is that MEM is giving up 23.5% of their total points to the C position. That is 56.6 points per game. Game total is also at 224 and he is coming off a 57 DK point outing. He has stuck around that 30ish point mark with a couple duds but that is why we are only using him in GPP and not cash. Low floor but in a spot for big upside. When he had the 57 point game vs. OKC he took 23 shots and put up 39 actual points. He could be in line for another big game coming off an almost 9x performance!
KRISTAPS PORZINGIS (7200) – I love this “sweet spot pricing” of guys in the 6500-8000 range that can hit 50 points. Game total of 219 and BOS is a tough matchup. They are giving up 24.1% of their total fantasy points to his primary position and that is 52.7 fantasy points. If you don’t normally follow along anything over 21-22% is a monstrous number for percentage of points allowed. 2 of his last 6 games he has been over 50 DK points giving you a solid ceiling.
RUDY GOBERT (7600) – GSW should have Draymond back tonight but they are still giving up a ton of points to the C position. 24.6% of their total points allowed have come from the C and that is 59.7 DK points! Projected to play 32-34 minutes tonight we are looking at Gobert in GPPs. I also don’t mind him in cash with a floor around 4.5x to 5x I think he can reach up a little higher for GPPs. We have only seen a 48 point game from once this year.
DERRICK ROSE (5800) – Questionable for tonight. His value returned in his last 6 games has been 7.1, 5.4, 3.4, 9.5, 5.8 and 7.6. That is what you want in a GPP. You want that BIG CEILING. He is playing anywhere from 21-28 minutes per game but taking double digit shot attempts. At 5800 for 5x value we need 29 points. I think 29 is his floor if he is playing tonight and he has 40-46 points as a recent ceiling. MIN is giving up 52.2 points to his position and that is 22.5% of the total points they are allowing. Whoever is on the perimeter tonight give them some consideration!
D’ANGELO RUSSELL (8300) – GPP only play here. UTA is a tough matchup and they play at a slow pace. The game total is only 213 and their team implied total is 102. UTA only allows 41.6 points to the PG position. However, we want low owned guys that can explode. I’m waiting for ownership projections but with the matchup I think his ownership will be down. He is coming off 48, 83 and 49 DK point games!
RUSSELL WESTBROOK (8800) – His last 3 games he only has 36, 40 and 25 DK points and those accounted for 4.3x and lower values while Harden was going bonkers. His price tag has dropped from 9800 to 9100 to 9400 and now breaking the 9k mark at 8800! I’m hoping that his recent performance woes people will gravitate toward Harden at 11,500. He did have a string of 5 games where he put up 62, 65, 50, 57 and 57 DK points and those were good for 5.4x value up to 7.1x value. With a game total of 243 points and a team total of 124 points he has plenty of wiggle room tonight. NOR is allowing 57.7 points to the PG position which is 23.7% of their total points allowed. They are only allowing 47.5 points to the SG position but still Harden is un-guardable.
CORRELATED GPP PLAYS:
I love to find guys that are correlated in regards to their performance on the court. An example is Harden vs. Westbrook. They are inversely related more than 80% of the time. So let’s look at recent games. On 11/09 Harden goes for 75 points and Westbrook a stinker at only 36, 11/06 Harden goes for 74.5 and Westbrook a stinker at 40. Earlier in the year when Westbrook went off for 65 points Harden only had 40.5. A couple of games they both his and exceeded value but rarely do both of them smash. Why is this important? If you are running 20 GPP lineups in a 20 max contents put Harden locked in WITHOUT Westbrook in 10 and then flip it and run 10 with Westbrook locked in and no Harden. I see so many people putting both players in a lineup. If you are looking at our “Player Tracker” sheet you can see the relationships between players by scrolling back over recent performance.
Danuel House (5300) & P.J. Tucker (5200) are also inversely related. If you are reading this in the article form I’ll include a screen shot, if you are reading this in a forum the screen shot won’t be below but you can reference the article for the screen shot. I just want to hit on the last 3 games: House 33 points vs. Tucker 20 points, Tucker 46 points vs. House 28.5 points, House 36 points vs. Tucker 10.5 points. So if you want to go a step further with those 20 GPP lineups you can do 5 with Harden + Tucker, 5 with Harden + House, 5 with Westbrook + Tucker and 5 with Westbrook + House. Now when the Houston game goes off you have 5 lineups with 2 monster guys and you might get lucky and they all hit value. Just my thoughts.
FREE PREMIUM SHEET THURSDAYS! (Free group here and you get some premium member benefits just by being in the group!) {Remember we post our Premium Cheatsheets for FREE on Thursdays in our Facebook group: http://www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/}
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze
submitted by CheatSheetProscom to FantasyNBAPlays [link] [comments]

NBA Daily Fantasy Plays (November 11, 2019) from CheatSheetPros!

NBA Plays & Stats for November 11th from CheatSheetPros! << UP arrow if you like the free content! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
With NBA season now in full swing we launched our NBA Algo Best Bets and advised people to play #1 and #2 rated games! We started off 3-2 (just missing a 4-1 opening night) then we followed that up with a 6-0 Saturday and 4-0 Sunday for an amazing 13-2 run for the 2019/2020 NBA Season! Our top GPP Algo plays have also been off to a red hot start!
FREE NBA OPTIMIZER (COMING SOON!)
We have been providing a FREE NFL Web Optimizer and now our Draftkings version of our NBA Optimizer is only a couple days away from being live! So stay tuned!
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:
I’m not going to focus on the cheap value plays that are popping up all over as everyone is well aware of them. I’m going to focus on some GPP players in good spots with high upside.
BRANDON INGRAM (7800) – Across 8 games this year he is averaging a nice 47.7 DK points which is just over 6x his current salary. He has also exceeded 55 DK points in 3 of those 8 games with a high of 63.25 DK points. He has a nice game total of 243 and Houston is allowing 9 more points to his position than league average for a 9.7% improved spot. Not to mention he dropped 60+ last time he faced them. Should be in line for a solid 5x floor and good shot at 6x value.
LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE (6300) – What jumps out at me here is that MEM is giving up 23.5% of their total points to the C position. That is 56.6 points per game. Game total is also at 224 and he is coming off a 57 DK point outing. He has stuck around that 30ish point mark with a couple duds but that is why we are only using him in GPP and not cash. Low floor but in a spot for big upside. When he had the 57 point game vs. OKC he took 23 shots and put up 39 actual points. He could be in line for another big game coming off an almost 9x performance!
KRISTAPS PORZINGIS (7200) – I love this “sweet spot pricing” of guys in the 6500-8000 range that can hit 50 points. Game total of 219 and BOS is a tough matchup. They are giving up 24.1% of their total fantasy points to his primary position and that is 52.7 fantasy points. If you don’t normally follow along anything over 21-22% is a monstrous number for percentage of points allowed. 2 of his last 6 games he has been over 50 DK points giving you a solid ceiling.
RUDY GOBERT (7600) – GSW should have Draymond back tonight but they are still giving up a ton of points to the C position. 24.6% of their total points allowed have come from the C and that is 59.7 DK points! Projected to play 32-34 minutes tonight we are looking at Gobert in GPPs. I also don’t mind him in cash with a floor around 4.5x to 5x I think he can reach up a little higher for GPPs. We have only seen a 48 point game from once this year.
DERRICK ROSE (5800) – Questionable for tonight. His value returned in his last 6 games has been 7.1, 5.4, 3.4, 9.5, 5.8 and 7.6. That is what you want in a GPP. You want that BIG CEILING. He is playing anywhere from 21-28 minutes per game but taking double digit shot attempts. At 5800 for 5x value we need 29 points. I think 29 is his floor if he is playing tonight and he has 40-46 points as a recent ceiling. MIN is giving up 52.2 points to his position and that is 22.5% of the total points they are allowing. Whoever is on the perimeter tonight give them some consideration!
D’ANGELO RUSSELL (8300) – GPP only play here. UTA is a tough matchup and they play at a slow pace. The game total is only 213 and their team implied total is 102. UTA only allows 41.6 points to the PG position. However, we want low owned guys that can explode. I’m waiting for ownership projections but with the matchup I think his ownership will be down. He is coming off 48, 83 and 49 DK point games!
RUSSELL WESTBROOK (8800) – His last 3 games he only has 36, 40 and 25 DK points and those accounted for 4.3x and lower values while Harden was going bonkers. His price tag has dropped from 9800 to 9100 to 9400 and now breaking the 9k mark at 8800! I’m hoping that his recent performance woes people will gravitate toward Harden at 11,500. He did have a string of 5 games where he put up 62, 65, 50, 57 and 57 DK points and those were good for 5.4x value up to 7.1x value. With a game total of 243 points and a team total of 124 points he has plenty of wiggle room tonight. NOR is allowing 57.7 points to the PG position which is 23.7% of their total points allowed. They are only allowing 47.5 points to the SG position but still Harden is un-guardable.
CORRELATED GPP PLAYS:
I love to find guys that are correlated in regards to their performance on the court. An example is Harden vs. Westbrook. They are inversely related more than 80% of the time. So let’s look at recent games. On 11/09 Harden goes for 75 points and Westbrook a stinker at only 36, 11/06 Harden goes for 74.5 and Westbrook a stinker at 40. Earlier in the year when Westbrook went off for 65 points Harden only had 40.5. A couple of games they both his and exceeded value but rarely do both of them smash. Why is this important? If you are running 20 GPP lineups in a 20 max contents put Harden locked in WITHOUT Westbrook in 10 and then flip it and run 10 with Westbrook locked in and no Harden. I see so many people putting both players in a lineup. If you are looking at our “Player Tracker” sheet you can see the relationships between players by scrolling back over recent performance.
Danuel House (5300) & P.J. Tucker (5200) are also inversely related. If you are reading this in the article form I’ll include a screen shot, if you are reading this in a forum the screen shot won’t be below but you can reference the article for the screen shot. I just want to hit on the last 3 games: House 33 points vs. Tucker 20 points, Tucker 46 points vs. House 28.5 points, House 36 points vs. Tucker 10.5 points. So if you want to go a step further with those 20 GPP lineups you can do 5 with Harden + Tucker, 5 with Harden + House, 5 with Westbrook + Tucker and 5 with Westbrook + House. Now when the Houston game goes off you have 5 lineups with 2 monster guys and you might get lucky and they all hit value. Just my thoughts.
FREE PREMIUM SHEET THURSDAYS! (Free group here and you get some premium member benefits just by being in the group!) {Remember we post our Premium Cheatsheets for FREE on Thursdays in our Facebook group: http://www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/}
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REDDIT SUB GROUP: www.reddit.com/FantasyNBAPlays
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze
submitted by CheatSheetProscom to dfsports [link] [comments]

I created an algorithm to help me decide which hockey team to support in my inaugural season of NHL fandom. Here are the results!

Hello hockey
As the title states, I have created a mathematical formula to decide what hockey team I will support. I will break up this post into a few sections to make it easier to read (aka casually skim through until the very end to see the results). There will be a TLDR at the end of each section.
WHY
Let’s start off with a little background for this fun scientific experiment. I live in a little midwest state by the name of Indiana. You may have heard of us. We’re known for many things, such as basketball (yay!) and the Indy 500 (meh). Outside of Larry Bird, Tony Stewart, and casual racism from everyone’s grandparents, there’s not too much else here. Anyway, growing up in the mid-to-late 1990s, Indiana was a great place in terms of sports. The Indiana Pacers were a consistently great team, thanks to Reggie Miller & company (still sad no titles). The Colts were up-and-coming with the one and only Peyton Manning. Bobby Knight still coached IU basketball and there was still an air of success around the program. Like most kids in Indiana at the time, I gravitated towards basketball.
Fast forward to today. Here I am, nearly 26 years old. The Pacers heyday has come and gone, with our biggest star in 20 years now gone. IU basketball is the shell of a program it used to be, with the team flirting with relevancy during my days as a student there (2010-2014), before spiraling down to our current state of mid-tier in the Big Ten. The Colts, even though we secured a Super Bowl, felt like there should’ve been 2 or 3 more, and will forever be known as postseason choke artists of the 2000s.
Enter the 2017 NBA and NHL Playoffs.
The 2017 NBA playoffs was essentially a two month time period where some groups of guys tried to throw pebbles at a couple of Apache Attack Helicopters. Like when you’re playing Civilization, and you move your tanks into a group of crossbowmen. From day one of this NBA season, everyone knew the Finals would be the Warriors vs the Cavs. I love watching basketball, especially playoffs, but first three rounds of the NBA playoffs were hard to watch. Very few close, exciting games, with lots of blow outs. This left a void in my heart. I needed to watch something sports related before we got to the worst time of the year (the time of year where basketball is over and football has yet to begin, and the only sport to watch on TV is baseball. In-person, baseball is fine. You get some fresh air, some hotdogs, and a couple beers with some friends. Good times. But who wants to watch a full baseball game on TV? 55 year old, white, recently divorced fathers, that’s who. Seeing as how I am only one of those things (I’ll let you guess which), I did NOT want to spend the last couple months before baseball-only season with no entertaining sports. So, as I was watching my Pacers give up the largest playoff lead in NBA playoff history, I decided to flip over to some playoff hockey.
It was so fun! I ended up watching Rangers vs Habs (Rangers won 3-2 in OT) and Sharks vs Oilers (Oilers won in OT). I struggled to understand some of what was going on, but it was EXCITING! So the next day, I watched the Caps beat the Leafs in OT, and Bruins beat the Sens in OT. And you know what, THOSE GAMES WERE EXCITING TOO (Well, Bruins - Sens was kind of exciting. More on that later). I barely even watched the NBA Playoffs that night, I was hooked. So I started popping into hockey and lurking through some of the game threads. I saw some gifs of Fleury doing silly things like hiding the puck from the refs, pat the goal-posts when a puck bounces off the iron, and even jerk off his stick when the handle saved a goal. Charles Barkley started preaching about the NHL being awesome, and I’ve always admired Chuck for telling it like it is. I saw both the exciting side and the silly side of the NHL in this subreddit. I knew I could get into this sport.
Prior to those two nights of playoff hockey, my exposure to hockey was minimal. In 2002, when I was 11, I got the videogame Backyard Hockey for PC for my birthday. Martin Brodeur was my team’s goalie, and Jaromir Jagr lead my team in points. I chose the Flames as my franchise, because to an 11 year old, WHAT’S COOLER THAN FIRE!?! C is the letter of my first name, which as you know is also Calgary’s logo, so naturally, I had to pick them. I even renamed them the Calgary Caleb’s. What a fucking dynasty. 12 straight undefeated seasons. Wow, such an amazing run. One for the record books. That’s the only thing I remember from that video game. I didn’t play the game much after a month or so, because that is when I got sucked into Morrowind for hundreds of hours.
The only other exposure I had into hockey was during college. Like I said earlier, I went to Indiana University, and of course, that school was LOADED with Blackhawk bandwagoners. I hadn’t seen a single Hawks jersey on campus until they won the cup in 2013, and then they were everywhere. This annoyed me. So the following year, I was out at the bars and the 2014 NHL Playoffs had just started. It was game 1 between the Blues and the Hawks, and of course, the bar was packed with people wearing Blackhawks jerseys, not even watching the game. Me, being slightly intoxicated, started heckling everyone wearing a Hawks jersey. “GOOOOOOOO BLUE TEAM!” I repeatedly shouted. Finally, after 3 OTs, the Blues won the game, so I began heckling even more. I’m surprised I didn’t get in a fight, but after a while, I realized it’s because the Hawks fans there were just bandwagoning and probably didn’t really care. Fun Fact: The number of fights I got into that night is equal to the number of games the Blackhawks won this postseason.
Once I got sucked into the NHL playoffs this year, I knew I wanted to get into hockey for real. The problem was, I live in central Indiana. I can’t just support my local team, because I don’t have a local team. I thought about being a Blues fan (GOOOO BLUE TEAM!), but I didn’t really like the idea of supporting a team solely out of my disdain for the fans of another team (Hawks). I wanted to be fully invested in the team. I also considered the Golden Knights, but then I remembered this article from fivethirtyeight. I could totally come up with something like that for my own. After an hour or so of tweaking and determining criteria, the algorithm was born.
TLDR: Channel Surfed to 2017 NHL Playoffs, games were awesome, no local team for me to support, time to create a (mostly) unbiased formula.
METHODOLOGY
Warning, some dry math-shit ahead.
I will be assigning a score of 1 to 10 for every single team against a set of criteria. Each criteria will be weighted. I decided to score every NHL team on the following 14 criteria.
1. Jersey and Logo Coolness. Very much a personal opinion here. I wouldn't want to support a team wearing the Mooterus Stars jersey or the Fisherman Islanders jersey. Granted, there really isn't anything quite as ugly as those currently but I will also try and factor in throwback uniforms and logos as well.
2. Quality of Best Player (Skill + Likability). It's important to have a marketable player, both via skill and personality. For example, Crosby would score very high skill-wise, but low on the likeability factor. Half the score here is skill, the other half likability. This was 1 of 2 criteria that generated a lot of internal argument
3. Geographic Closeness. The closest team to where I live is the Blue Jackets at 3 hours 20 minutes(drive time). They will serve as the baseline 10 for this criteria. Every additional 2 hours past 3 hours 20 minutes will result in a loss of a point. Google maps will serve as the utility for which time is measured
4. Quality of Fanbase. Are you fans classy, or are they all inconsiderate douchebags? Low score = hostile fans or fair weather fans.
5. Appearance of bandwagoning if supporting. Nobody likes a bandwagoner. Indiana University was filled with Blackhawk jerseys after they won the Stanley Cup. I hadn't seen a single Blackhawks jersey prior. I find this type of behavior extremely annoying, so I do not want to join a team that has a high bandwagon factor. A low score indicates a high bandwagon appearance.
6. Potential for next 5 years (Youth + Assets). I want to support a team that doesn't necessarily have to be a contender to win it all next year, but I would like to support a team that at least is considered to be a on the upswing. This was the other criteria that generated a lot of internal argument
7. Past Postseason Success. Self Explanatory.
8. Franchise Reputation. Is the franchise known for having a great GM, making savvy personnel decisions, being considered a model franchise by other franchises and other fans? Think the San Antonio Spurs of the NHL.
9. Quality of Goal Song / Power Play Song. A small factor that shouldn't be overlooked. A good goal song should be happy and joyful, a good power play song should stir excitement. I don't even know if all teams have a goal or power play song, but if you don't, you're wrong and I hate you. I concede, Chelsea Dagger is a great goal song
10. Entertainment Factor. I don't care if my future team goes 82-0 if they win every game 1-0 with a goal in the first period. I want to support a team that will excite, for better or worse. Kind of like the Capitals being a choke-hazard. Ottawa, on the other hand, is notorious for running a 1-3-1, which in layman’s terms, translates to “Boring AF”. (The first Sens - Bruins game I watched this post-season wasn’t that bad, but as the playoffs progressed, I started to get worn down by their style)
11. Disposition for City Based Upon Other Sport Fandom And Other Personal Experiences. I like basketball and football. I used to be a bigger baseball fan, but that has waned off in the past 6-7 years. I still pay attention, but not to the degree of the other two sports. Naturally, the teams I support (Pacers, Colts, Reds) have rivals. It would pain me to be a fan of the Bruins, because I know that a lot of Bruin fans are also Patriot fans. Same with Chicago because of Bulls vs Pacers. A low score here indicates that I do not like other sports teams in this city. I will also factor in personal experiences if I have ever been to the city in question.
12. Coaching. Nothing more infuriating in sports than having a great roster with poor direction from the coach. I have much experience with that feeling, unfortunately. (See the 2013 IU Men’s Basketball team, who was ranked number 1 in the nation, but couldn’t break a fucking zone defense from Syracuse in the Sweet Sixteen. Really, Tom Crean? Really? That’s middle school stuff right there)
13. Arena Quality. How bad is the arena in need of renovations? Is there a new stadium coming? Does the stadium kick ass? I plan on actually traveling to see a game in the next year or two, a nice arena would be welcome.
14. Strength In Advanced Stats. My friend Jacob, the advanced stats nerd of a hockey fan, suggested this criteria. He created a custom formula to rank every team in this area. Here is his write-up for the formula he created. Warning, even dryer math-shit ahead. Skip this quoted area to get on with the methodology.
No seriously, this shit is dry. You have been warned
GOALIES
To summarize goalie performance, I wanted to use season-by-season goals saved above average (GSAA).
Basic formula:
GSAA=Saves-(Total ShotsLeague Average season save%)*
Summary: "How many more saves did this goalie make than a league-average goalie would have made on the same amount of shots?" (higher is better).
This takes into account ever-changing league average save% and weights for shot quantity. However, this alone does not factor in shot quality which in my mind is an important factor as well, to remove team defensive ability from the goalie’s performance. If a goalie pads his stats with saves on low-quality shots, what does that truly say about his ability?
To include shot quality, I pulled goalie save data from firstlinestats.com, which has shots categorized by low/medium/high danger. I computed the league average for each of these danger categories & calculated every goalie’s GSAA for each category. I then rounded all 3 up into one number, which was weighted as such:
Weighted GSAA=1.2High Danger GSAA+Medium Danger GSAA+0.8*Low Danger GSAA *
Validity sniff test:
In the 2016-17 season, the top 2 goalies by my calculations were Cam Talbot and Sergei Bobrovsky.
Talbot had a huge workload (started 73 games) and had an above-league-average overall save% at .919, all while facing the most high-danger shots of any goalie.
Weighted GSAA: 49.14
Bobrovsky had a big workload (started 63 games), had a historic overall save% of .931, also faced many high-danger shots, and won the Vezina trophy.
Weighted GSAA: 48.89
Though some may debate the order, in my mind, this passes.
I evaluated each team’s starter & backup by calculating each of their last 3 seasons’ weighted GSAA. To gauge their overall quality, I weighted their last 3 seasons 4/9, 3/9, and 2/9 (from most recent to least) to project ability & weed out outlier seasons as best as possible.
For overall goalie systems, I used starter quality by weighted GSAA, backup quality by weighted GSAA, and prospect quality to get an overall snapshot of a team’s goalie system. Prospect quality came from InGoal Magazine’s rankings from pre-2016-17 season, which admittedly is dated but was the best I could find.
Overall Team Goalie Quality=0.65Starter Quality+0.25Prospect Quality+0.1Backup Quality*
SKATERS
(note: in this section, when I say “shot” I mean “unblocked shot”, aka “shots on goal + missed shots”, aka “Fenwick”)
To summarize team’s skaters ability, I wanted to cover 4 aspects: even-strength shot generation, even-strength shot suppression, power play shot generation, and penalty kill shot suppression. As noted by Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com, shot generation & suppression are mostly independent, so I reviewed those 2 parameters separately rather than in terms of Fenwick %.
Upfront, I’ll acknowledge the weaknesses in this section:
Ideally I would have used zone-, score-, and venue-adjusted Fenwick for these calculations, but with Corsica down I made do with the free analytics data I could find. I also only used last season’s numbers here...since there have been plenty of offseason moves, particularly with the expansion draft, I figured looking at only last regular season’s shot data would be the most representative going forward, though I admit it won’t be perfect.
To cover the 4 aspects mentioned previously, I pulled the following data, and weighted the numbers as noted:
I then ranked all teams based on this weighted criteria. For Vegas, I made a snap judgement call & rated them right in the middle of the pack. This was reinforced by their current signed roster; they have a mix of historically positive shot impact players like James Neal, average possession players like Cody Eakin, & negative possession players like Luca Sbisa. As far as I can tell, they’re aiming for right in the middle of the pack in terms of puck possession.
OVERALL
After all that, my overall ranking system was simple. 40% goalie, 60% skaters to give a one-stop estimator of team’s advanced stats strength.
Wow, I thought my algorithm was in-depth, but Jacob put his super complex shit inside of my kinda complex shit. And I thought I was a nerd.
But how did I determine the weight of the criteria? I didn’t want to just arbitrarily assigned values to each criteria. I wanted to be a bit more scientific. Using a website called www.allourideas.com, I input the 14 criteria into their tool. The website then randomly pits one criteria against another, and I had to choose which I think is more important. I did this over the course of three weeks with 700 matchups voted upon. This “over time” approach help paint a more accurate picture as to what I find truly the most important. My opinions could change day to day, but across 3 weeks, this helped create a better overall picture. Once I reached the day I had planned to do the algorithm, I viewed the results. The website presented me with a 1-100% chance that a criteria would beat any other criteria. I then took the values and divided them by 50. This reduced the scale of the weight to be between 0 and 2. I felt that a criteria weight between 0-2 was a good number. I didn’t feel that any one criteria was more than 2 times more important than another. This would give me a much tighter spread on final point totals than if I had just assigned a 1 to 14 criteria importance. Also, a tighter point spread means more excitement for me and my friends as we filled out the algorithm. If Franchise Reputation is weight of 1.5, and I scored a team with a 10 for that criteria, then that is worth 15 points. Hopefully that makes sense. See screenshot in the final google sheet for the head-to-head probability results. This is pre-scaling of the weight.
I’m new to hockey, so how the hell am I supposed to know what team has a great coach, or who the hell has potential for the future, or a good reputation? To help me conduct the algorithm, I am relying on three of my friends who are hockey fans to help me determine point values for the criteria. u/the_team_plug is a lifelong Bruins fan, so when it comes to the Habs, I’m not sure I will take his opinion into consideration. Otherwise, he played goalie up through college, so he actually has a pretty good knowledge base. u/OsuJaws is a longtime Red Wings fan, and seems to believe the Red Wings won’t suck soon. Even though he went to school in Columbus Ohio, he could never bring himself to be a fan of the Blue Jackets. The other is Jacob (who won’t tell us his username, probably because he leaves creepy stalker comments all over porn subreddits). He’s the guy who came up with the advanced stats criteria above. He first got into the NHL when the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg and became a Jets, so he just sided with the newest team at the time. Because Jacob isn’t a complete sadist, he jumped off the Jets wagon and has now been a Predators fan for all of 2 months. Convenient timing and totally not a bandwagon move.
TLDR: Math happened and an algorithm was made. Hockey friends will help me assign values that are somewhat in-between subjectivity and objectivity.
The Stakes
I am putting my money where my math is. Whatever team wins the algorithm scoring, I will purchase some fan gear at the end of the night. Maybe just a t-shirt, maybe a jersey, maybe a full blown mascot costume. That largely depends on how many beers I drink with the guys while scoring this. It also depends on how much I think my wife will harm me if I spend like $200 (Maybe I can make an algorithm for that as well. Beers consumed vs dollars spent vs doghouse potential, find the optimal break-even point). The two other guys are here not only to advise me in scoring of criteria I may not know, but also to keep me honest. I will buy merchandise and be a fan of whatever team wins, NO MATTER THE RESULT. Would it pain me to be a Hawks fan based upon my past experiences? You bet your ass it would, but the numbers don’t lie. And let’s be honest, my friends would have a laugh seeing me wearing a Hawks jersey. So whatever happens, that’s what happens. No going back to fudge numbers. This is it. If I feel ambitious (ie, not lazy) I may even do the stereotypical write a letteemail to the team, explaining the situation, and beg for merchandise asking for a letter back.
TLDR: Gonna buy some gear when finished, no matter who wins.
Conducting the Algorithm
At the start of the event, we decided that it would be better to hide to total column until the very end. Once a criteria had been fully scored, we also hid that column. This would help prevent bias by being able to glance at the totals as started tallying.
The Result and Closing Notes
Before I share the results: I am certain that there will be disagreement on some of the scoring. I just want to take a minute and say that we scored everything to the best of our abilities. There was a lot of internal arguments for some of the scores, but all reached compromise. For things that we were uncertain, we researched between this subreddit and a few other hockey websites/forums. We know that these scores won’t please everyone. If you want to conduct this experiment on your own, I’d love to help you out!
You can choose to uncover the spoiler here, or you can open up the google sheet just below that.
I am pleased to announce that in my inaugural season of hockey fandom, I will be taking my talents to the Toronto Maple Leafs!
Here is a link to the google sheet with league-wide results, sorted descending in final scoring. Be sure to hover over some of the cells to see detailed notes.
I hope you all have enjoyed this post, and I look forward to becoming more knowledgeable and enjoy this great sport!
EDIT: Whew, I struck a nerve huh?. Listen, I'm new. I know some of you had your team-pride hurt by my rankings. I can admit that some of it was inaccurate and this is not a perfect method. There probably is no perfect method to picking a team. I'm sure a lot of you are coming from a good place and are wondering on some of my scores. Even calling me stupid may be fair (I mean, I am new), but sending me PMs from throwaway accounts wishing harm upon me is a bit much, no?
EDIT 2: https://youtu.be/ryZJWLMe1ag
EDIT 3: Is only game
submitted by AlbinoMonster to hockey [link] [comments]

How to use Reddit to improve your knowledge of sports

How to use Reddit to improve your knowledge of sports

https://preview.redd.it/b811yfjmj8k31.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc198fd0618e93aeb821784f166a246dc4c593f6
Now, as you are well aware, Reddit is an incredible resource for learning about a wide variety of things. From beauty to managing your finances, it seems there’s nothing you can’t learn about on the internet’s favorite forum.
So, with this in mind, it should come as no surprise that there’s a seemingly endless list of subreddits that are an ‘everything you need to know’ for pretty much every sport-related activity. Below we’ve listed some of the biggest forums that can help you improve your knowledge of sports.

Football (soccer)

Now, we’re not talking about the NFL here, but the global game of soccer. As soccer is the game that is supposedly the most popular sport in the world (4 billion fans can’t be wrong, eh?), there are so many threads that it’s hard to keep up. In the main subreddit of soccer, there are 1.6 million active users, or what they call “season ticket holders”.
At any given time, there could be thousands of soccer fans online sharing their thoughts on the latest transfer moves or how their team is faring in their respective leagues. Dig a little deeper and you’ll find subreddits for pretty much every professional league in the world. Want to learn how to train properly? No problem. Need to know some stats for a particular player? You’ll find plenty of resources here, too.

Poker

We’re going from the most popular sport on the planet to the most popular card game. Poker has always been a game with avid fans, but in recent times the rise of online poker has seen a new and fresh poker community grow and thrive in online forums. Although the main poker subreddit has only 111,000 members, you’ll find some really interesting tips and guides on improving your game, even for absolute beginners.
Incidentally, many of the top poker providers offer tutorials on their websites. Some of them have opted for online courses, where it is possible to develop a complete strategy and an online forum where you can interact with other pokers players or try some live training. Now, if you want to know which is the best, then ask on the poker subreddit, and you’ll get an honest response.

Basketball

While the general basketball subreddit only has 40,000 members, the NBA subreddit boasts over 2.6 million members. Wow—and we thought soccer was popular! It seems that the world of basketball revolves around the NBA, so who are we to argue?
There are even plenty of subreddits for NBA teams, each packed with knowledgeable fans dying to share their opinions on their favorite team. There are some really interesting threads in the main NBA subreddit, though, such as how LeBron forgot he wasn’t playing for the Heat and blocked one of his own teammates. The comments on that particular thread are great, as they offer good insight into how the game is supposed to be played and what could be going through the mind of a player.

Betting

Come on, let’s face it.. Betting on sports is a really big deal. And whether or not you’re into placing wagers on the action, the threads on betting subreddits can actually be treasure troves of insights. In all honesty, they’re great places for fantasy sports pickers to learn about how their picks might fare.
On Reddit there is a complete forum (with more than 14,000 members) for learning about the main news, tips and picks in the sporting field. Once you have gleaned some of those useful insights we mentioned earlier, you can then use one of the main aggregators of bookmakers, like Oddschecker, for example, to make comparisons among the odds offered by the various major betting sites.

Baseball


https://preview.redd.it/d56d8ewoj8k31.jpg?width=810&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e95c82c7be8348fadf6bf0ccc4d96e372d554ce6
The main baseball subreddit now has 998,000 members, and it’s just a matter of time before that hits the magic million marker. That’s pretty astounding for a game that is really only played professionally in the US and some smaller nations such as Japan and Taiwan.
So, is it all about the MLB? In a word, yes. There’s very little discussion about any other leagues or teams outside the MLB, unless there’s a major international tournament going on. Even then, the MLB team news still tops the charts. Having said that, it still is a great place to learn as much as you can about the professional game. As you know, it’s a game of stats, and so there are hundreds of threads discussing the importance of a player or team’s numbers and how these can be used to predict future results. Again, this can be very useful for fantasy sports pickers or anyone that likes a bet on a game.
Reddit is a veritable minefield of information on sports. And the fact that you can engage in discussion makes it all the more of an enjoyable resource for learning. So, if you want to learn something about your favorite game, forget Wikipedia and get on Reddit.
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Toronto City Guide

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Hey guys,
As some of you know I’ve never been to Toronto. However, I do have friends who have been there. Overall, from what I gather Toronto is hard for Game. Since the girls tend to be the more liberal/hippie/feminist type who is difficult to hook up with, the city is very multicultural so you’ll have much more competition tons of guys who work there at IT and there’s a lot of guy who know about game/pua(it is where Mystery and other classic PUA’s are from, so you get an idea). At the same time, don’t be discouraged, a lot of guys live there and they have managed to make something out of it, therefore, so can YOU.
Here’s a compilation post of multiple hardcore PUA’s who have lived or visited Toronto. I’m only sharing the best posts that I found, I’ve hand- picked every post to deliver for you the best and most clear quality posts.
Edit 1: I'm editing out any content that is offensive, since we are an optimistic forum.
Hardcore PUA 1:
Night game in Toronto is not easy.I could list hot bars and clubs, but it doesn't mean you are going to get lucky. The place could be wall to wall chicks and you still could strike out.The city is also very strange, I have been to spots that were simply off the hook. A week later I return to the same spot and I was like WTF happened.Every weekend is very hit and miss, so you have to move around a lot and hope you hit one of those magical nights.
Word of advice - get out early and pre drink before the PMS crowd gets on the scene.
Are you ready to battle the club scene?Moma in one of our podcasts, talked about how he went 0 for 30 in a bar one night.How many rejections are you willing to take before you call it a night?How late are you willing to grind it out at night?Some of my best pulls have been in the early morning, either on the street or a chinese restaurant on Spadina. Sadly, a lot of these chicks love poutine and pizza. So you might have better luck in those spots.
We can all agree that getting numbers isn't a good night.So when you meet Ms down-for-the-night, where are you going to take her?
Having a pad downtown close to the nightlife is the number one thing that will help you pull girls. Location, location, location is what they teach guys selling real estate. Look at the prices for rent on King St W and you will see why.
I was downtown in Yorkville yesterday, having lunch with a fellow RVFer. The talent wasn't great, in fact I saw more white jiggling cellulite thighs than I care to see. For an area that is suppose to be rich, elite, posh etc, it was very sad. My local suburban mall would have killed it with eye candy.
Which leads me to this, are you guys in good shape?There are many gyms in this city, so you have no excuse to not be in shape.Go to a LA fitness and you will see girls in there killing it, like their life depended on being in shape.If I were new to a city, I would join a gym right away. The nicer the gym the more girls it will attract.Girls love Crossfit gyms, girls love gyms that have yoga.I know some girls who have more than one membership at a gym.With LA fitness you can visit other gyms, I don't work out at LA fitness. lol
Drake Hotel - I never liked this spot, my friends go there quite a bit. For me it is too crammed and the talent isn't that great. It has always been a place that had a lot of dudes.
Madison - As soon as I read a Toronto report that lists this pub/bar, I know straight away the guy is trolling. This spot use to be a RSD/PUA hangout a few years back and had horrible ratios then.
Rebel NightClub/Cabana - both of these places are in the same location.I have heard Rebel is the hot club now, I have not been and quite frankly don't really care to go. They do have some good acts performing there, so I will "try" to make the effort to check one of them out. Future the rapper was there a few months ago, the place was crawling with chicks.
Cabana - is a Miami wannabe day club.Do not go there unless you can pull up in your boat, afford the crazy bottle service prices and have girls you can bring with you or if you have a great physique and can draw girls with it.If you are curious, I would suggest going when they have a world renowned EDM DJ performing, I believe Carl Cox was there this weekend.Girls love EDM in Toronto, so if you can handle the noise and the beats per minute then this could work for you.I have seen girls at these spots solo.
It has been discussed before but worth mentioning again.How is your fashion?You better have a decent wardrobe or one killer outfit that you can wear on a night out.Guys here still dress for crap and yes Montreal guys know how to dress. This isn't an excuse, make sure you have an outfit that is on point.I see Chinese dudes in Starbucks now, wearing Prada/Common Projects/Louboutin sneakers and $2K in clothing.I am not saying you have to be a label whore, but if you can afford it then go for it.
Hardcore PUA 2
Toronto is an extremely attractive city, and even as I travel to some of the likes of Eastern Europe, it's never a complete let down to get back home. There's a catch. Most Toronto guys have no game, and the women here know it. Luckily, if you aren't from Toronto that doesn't apply. I normally let them know I am from the USA very early on in the conversations.
Since you have a 1/2 chance of meeting a non-Canadian, it helps to have traveled a bit so you can talk to the many foreigners that live here about their countries. You'll meet lots of French and Germans, as well as Australians, Brits, Ukrainians, and Russians. A lot of them are here on Visas, and you don't get nearly the amount of weekend tourists as the other big North American cities. I find it crazy how many people going to Niagara Falls but not Toronto.
I don't think game is too complicated in Toronto. The main thing is to talk to the women before you are incredibly drunk. The typical Canadian guy will wait til 1am to make an approach, and by that time he's normally pretty sloppy and it quickly becomes a shootout for the girls who aren't paired off by then.
**Where to live/stay:**I would suggest the following corridor: West of Bathurst, South of Bloor, East of Jarvis. The best place for quality of women is going to be either Liberty Villiage or City Place. Rent will set you back about $1,600 for a one bedroom, or $2,300 for a 2 bedroom, as the buildings in these neighbourhoods are all relatively new with good amenities. There are older buildings in the above corridor which you can rent for around $1,100 for a one bedroom. The cheapest you'll be able to find would be $400-$500 for a crappy shared apartment. Girls are used to going home in ubecabs here, so as long as you are in that relative area, you probably won't have any logistics issues.
If you are here for a weekend, best bet is to use AirBnb. There are 2 hostels downtown worth staying at if you are on a budget- The Planet Traveler -kensington market with an awesome rooftop, and the HI on Jarvis- Good location with a bar under it.
Bars I like, by neighbourhood:
Kensington Market- Eclectic Hipstery Neighbourhood
Cold Tea- This is a speakeasy in Kensington Market that makes a perfect date spot. Expensive, but expertly made cocktails in an intimate setting. In the summer they throw Sunday-Fundays that can't be beat. They have a DJ, rotating restaurants supplying food each week, and a normally at capacity outdoor patio. It can be a hipster crowd, but there is always talent to be had there and I've seen some weird stuff go down.
The Boat- Fun, open dance venue. Great place to grab some drinks on the weekend, can be hit or miss but when it's good it's a fun night out.
Sneaky Dee's- Legendary place in Toronto known for cheap drinks and massive food plates. Downstairs can be tough to pick up since it is all seating, but upstairs is wide open. Busy on the weekends, but they also do karaoke nights, trivia nights, and host live bands.
Queen/King St West
Crocodile Rock- Cougar bar by weekend, but probably your best bet on a Wednesday night in Toronto. Cheap drinks, and lots of drunk students. The downstairs is probably the better of the 2 floors to pick up, but both can be alright. Gotta make your move early, it's a shit show by 12:30am.
Queen Street Warehouse- If you are a looking for party on an off night, this is going to be your last chance venue. It's a very hipster bar, but you can get the non hipster girls in her occasionally, sometimes those in the industry. Always fun music, girls dancing on bars, and generous bartenders. $5 food for everything on the menu.
Rockin' Horse Saloon - One of 2 country bars in Toronto. The talent here is always good, busy Thur-Sat. The mechanical bull and line dancing make for a fun vibe.
The Porch (summer only)- Amazing rooftop patio with a view of the CN tower. Expensive drinks and food, but great place to meet beautiful women and enjoy your summer nights.
Gracie O'Malley's - Irish pub with cheap drinks and a great student crowd. Really easy place to pick up and good looking 19-21 y/o sorority type girls. Live band alternating into a dj on the breaks. Student night on Thursday is a gold mine. I've gone here in a blazer after events before and it definitely helps with that crowd.
The Cameron House- Amazing date spot, live music every night of the week and never cover for the main room. Tough place to pull, but it can happen if you get lucky. If you aren't looking to pull but just want to have a fun night listening to live music, give this place a go.
Wide Open- Probably the cheapest place for drinks in Toronto. Small, skinny dive bar. Best bet here is to pop in for a drink to pregame at the beginning of the night. Sometimes there will be a couple girls to chat up. If not, the bartenders are normally good looking so enjoy that and move on.
Bar 244- This cheap club has $3 drinks on Saturday nights. Bar is typically really busy, 2 floors and lots of girls. Definitely worth a look.
The Drake- 3 level venue with 2 dance floors and a rooftop. Quality girls, good music. If you have some dance floor game this place can be really good. I do better meeting the girls outside of here, then walking back in with them.
Dog and Bear- I've done really well here in the past. If you don't get here early enough, you'll be stuck in line for a while. The women are typically good looking and the set up of the venue makes approaches easy. A lot of times we will got to The Ossington bar early, get a stamp, then head here until the Ossington gets busy.
Bier Markt-A beer menu that goes for ages, and live bands on the weekend. Great place to pick up, once again, normally a good crowd of girls but a lack of men hitting on them.
The Addisons- Not on King West, but close, this venue is set up to resemble a house party. The outdoor patio will have all sorts of games to play, and inside looks like a big house party, to the extent that they bring in free pizza for everyone throughout the night. Beautiful women, approachable, and easy to pull.
Oasis Rooftop (summer only)- This place brings out the best Toronto has to offer. Expensive drinks, but a fantastic place to have some Coronitas on a hot summer day. Good place to meet girls before heading somewhere else with them later in the night.
Bar Hop- Another great date spot. Awesome beer menu, intimate bar.
Underground Garage-[/i] If you want to go hard on a Monday, this is your best place. There will be some talent for sure, but you'll have to work for it. Weekends can be good too. Half bar, half dance floor, sketchy decorations.
UG3- A newish venue in Toronto, great for picking up. Here you get the King West girls that aren't slutting it up at the Clubs. It's a live music venue that's entirely open and easy to meet people. Good looking girls, fun music, and PBR tallboys on special. What more could you ask for?
Thompson Rooftop- You'll need to dress well for here, and sometimes the face control can be a bit strict. Top tier talent, and a pretty approachable venue with nice views of the city.
If you struck out on King Street West, don't give up yet. Thursdays outside Gracies you can easily pick up last minute on the street. Friday and Saturday Walk between Bathurst and John anywhere from 2-3am and you'll have an alright chance. Also, if you head to Smoke's Poutinery or Burrito Boyz, there will be a bunch of drunk people ordering food and waiting for their orders. Can't count the amount of times I have pulled from the above tactics.
Yorkville- Fanciest neighbourhoodThis neighborhood is where you will find the celebrities hanging out in Toronto. There are ok bars- Hemingways, Proof, but I don't normally go out of my way to go out here.
Day by Day Recommendations:Sunday- Cold Tea (summer)Monday- Baby Hueys, Underground GarageTuesday- Queen Street WarehouseWednesday- Crocodile Rock, FictionThursday- Any, but for students- Gracey O'Mallies and Madison PubFriday- AnySaturday- Any
Hardcore PUA 3:
Let's get something straight......night gaming in Toronto is unlike any other city in Canada. Maybe I shouldn't speak as a know all about elsewhere as I've only visited Montreal twice for 2 nights each stay in terms of seeing other cities here.
Being the best looking guy can count for Jack shit here at some venues. At some places you can be dressed in Gucci or whatever the hot fashion trend is......and at the same venue a guy can walk in the club in jogging pants and running shoes and pull the baddest broad while you are fortunate to get even a IG or whatsapp. Guys are spending a TON more than what you spend at venues in other cities here.
In Montreal or other cities in Canada you don't have professional athletes and their entourages from 3 major sports franchises ( the Argos don't count,lol) often coming out and getting first dibs on the hottest broads.
I think the Raptors coming here was THE worst thing ever to happen to night gaming in Toronto. These guys and their entourages dress like shit......but promoters know they're going to spend a TON on bottles. And they roll like 10 deep. Then you have visiting nba teams' players during the season and coming here in the offseason to party.
This city used to fly under the radar. Just last night I ran into a New Yorker that said he loves Toronto....asked him what he is here for.....he was a friend of some rapper or athlete I think it was.
Hardcore PUA 4:
Toronto: I know that many hate this city, I found Toronto be a good city (not the best) to game girls. in Toronto there is options for every single human. This city is the warmest between the 3 , way more events , nightlife is amaziiiing >>>> MTL >> Ottawa. you can party every night from Wednesdayto sunday EVEN in winter .Toronto is super super expensive and stressful though. Even though i found womens to be easy if you hit the right spots, but stressful life made me focus in other staff more than the womens
pros : ( my favorite city between the 3)- Nightlife !! many many options, girls can be as bitchy in some places and down to earth in others ( in Montreal almost in every place Girls are bitchy)-So diverse, this city offers many options and a variety of girls from all the world, so for sure one girl the country "X" will like you.- Your race won't matter, Toronto girls don't care where do you come from , as long as they like you.
Conclusion :
This guide was from back in the day, writen by a bunch of hardcore PUA's. I will create my own guide in the future. Note, offensive content will not be accepted.
submitted by Kratz177 to Crimsonpill [link] [comments]

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